Energy Prospectus

bobs

could you revisit that topic again re CPE hedges and if they wanted to get the cash now and is there a big penalty for cashing them in early...thanks

bobs

any thoughts?
No news!

bobs

Does anyone have access to the report..............thanks

bobs

Ive been reading this recently in numerous articles which might explain why fracking drilling needs more wells (if true) just to keep production even and tier 1 wells are getting fewer so things will continue to get worse at least at these prices. This doesnt seem like a good business model and agai...

bobs

Are AM pipes of value only to AR or can others use them if something happens to AR?
If others can connect then they might still have value.

bobs

Something is wrong with this picture because CRZO is selling at less than 2X earnings (unless oil drops a huge amount) and yet CPE and other energy companies aren't apparently willing to recover their takeover investment in 2 years. I don't follow all the energy companies but is this the case for ma...

bobs

Could CRZOs Eagle Ford property be that bad where they are only worth a few times what they earn every year (assuming it continues) so that the reduced takeover premium is justified?
I suspect a lot of CRZO shareholders will vote no on the new deal terms.

bobs

with NG generally stronger and a 19% yield and big investors getting out there must be mega risk to AM somewhere that you Dan and the various analysts are discounting?

bobs

Major shareholder dumps a bunch of AM.
Any thoughts?

bobs

I ended up voting my CRZO shares for the merger but if CPE shareholders vote it down does CRZO get some $ since the deal doesnt go thru?

bobs

It was reported some outfit just bought 4.5m shares of CRZO.
I would assume there is no reason the merger won't go through??

bobs

I would doubt her ban would take effect but apparently EOG would suffer the most from what I understand...comments??

bobs

the stock is down 50% from recent levels perhaps due to the above and now yields like 17%+
Any thoughts??

bobs

It appears that CPE mgmt gets sweet deals if they leave due to the merger and if the same for CRZO there wouldnt be any near term G & A cost savings so that is another point to not have the merger go through.....????

bobs

IMO?
Could you summarize in a few sentences the 2020 impact of this on oil from a macro perspective.........is it a big deal and who are the winners and losers.....thanks

bobs

this explanation makes total sense to me so higher prices are not likely for some time except that stuff always happens that no one expects at again some of the time

bobs

Any thoughts on the merger share ratio after CRZO strong results compared to CPE which is entirely in the Permian which as of
recently doesnt look as strong a place to be compared to 6 months ago?

bobs

bobs

I think all of the "gassers" have tanked about the same amount in stock price and if NG prices continue to drop which one or two would be the least likey to be at risk of going under in a worst case environment if you could even speculate on that.

bobs

I realize NG is out of favor but any thoughts on this recent collapse.

bobs

The possible problem is that agreed upon cuts again imply that the supply of oil is there if the world ever needs it from more demand. With the ability of the US to seemingly increase supply easily and OPEC holding back production even with increasing demand energy stocks are unable to go up and tha...

bobs

AM continues to slip lower and since I understand it is largely dependent on AR production as NG prices drift down AR production may drop and AM pricing for the pipeline would also drop and then what happens. Not sure how all this might work since long term NG prices seems like can only go down even...

bobs

My concern is that a merger of SM and CRZO wont get Wall Street excited since both appear to be not favored despite their prospects (particularly CRZO.

bobs

Ever since announcing the div increase AM has been drifting down big time on a % basis.
Any thoughts on why?

bobs

Dan et al........does this mean our smaller companies can't compete in this area which is why SM and CRZO might combine and even then would they be too small compared to the majors???

bobs

they are but why

bobs

down 3+%

bobs

As an alternative to MandA activity I guess MBOs/private equity take overs in the energy business dont happen much since in this low interest environment the returns seem outstanding unless oil prices forever tank.

bobs

I echo your concerns and after listening to the reasonably positive CRZO cc and the stock tanking even more despite oil going up nothing of this seems to makes sense.

bobs

My understanding of light oil is that the ever rising US shale production could ramp up more than our US refineries (I dont believe any are being built) could handle and therefore export demand would be required to increase dramatically if pricing for WTI was to head up to the 70s. If correct is tha...

bobs

Does this impact the CF and EPS estimates for Q4 and 2019 if oil prices stay in the mid 50s??

bobs

If this news is typical of the Perm doesnt seem good.

bobs

Dan et al......anyone have access to the Raymond James report on CRZO?
Thanks Bob

bobs

from a non oil person...could you expand on the risk to their oil fields....don't you simply drill another oil well where you know where the reserves are?

bobs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia ... 36588.html

bobs

The FCF won't happen if the NG prices drop way down and with all the continued growth in production even though demand grows the gassers values may stay down or continue to go lower which has been what seems to be going on for some years. RRC is 10 and although many analysts think it could be 20 it ...

bobs

TPH has a 24 price target for CRZO "based upon conservative oil price forecast" yet when oil was in the mid 70s in early October the CRZO price was in the mid 20s.
Their price forecast must be awfully optimist vs what I would consider "conservative" since oil is now in the low 50s.

bobs

ENLC has dropped more than the other MLPs in the high yield group and does that relate to DVN and perhaps their lower prospects.
I assume ENLK and C aren't totally tied into DVN production but DVN would be their biggest customer?

bobs

Of the small caps which are oil hedged alot and which arent if that is easy for you to let us know since we can determine that info easily for the Sweet 16 but not the small caps......thanks

bobs

XEC didn't participate in the recovery on Wednesday and is that perhaps because the REN shareholders get can have a certain amount of cash for their shares which were a lot higher at the time of the deal so that the XEC recent price drop makes the cash a much better deal than taking shares? Too comp...

bobs

whatever the various explanations are for the huge one day drop it didn't end up recovering hardly at all which says to me the fundamentals at least for the majority of investors is very bearish

bobs

These stock for stock mergers of energy companies at beaten up prices are what seem to be the trend vs out right cash acquisitions by a bigger energy company of the smaller ones also at beaten up prices. Any thoughts on why that isn't happening??

bobs

Does anyone think that a hostile takeover could be in the works for like 25+ per share although since both boards have already approved the deal I would assume that is unlikely??

bobs

I had a bunch of the B pfd thinking it was worth at least 10 or so but gave up on it and lost a bundle.
Don't have a clue in response to your question but good luck!

bobs

Both came out with the Q2 reports and stocks near lowest point yet have stack/scoop exposure.
Any thoughts?

bobs

lots of positives yet stock dropped off which seems to be the case often in the upstream sector??

bobs

Any thoughts on buying in at these prices from anyone??

bobs

Apparently lots of bigger very successful e and ps are drilling wells surrounding GSTs yet are they also in the tier 2 space?
Try to clarify if possible.

bobs

It is at a yearly high although oil is down from the low 70s to 65......any thoughts??

bobs

could you explain the 79M unrealized loss on derivative contracts since that might be reason for the 10%+ drop in price after the earnings announcemnt

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