Fresh forecasts for ECA and GPOR on our website

Fresh forecasts for ECA and GPOR on our website

Postby dan_s » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:47 am

Late yesterday (June 10) I updated my forecast/valuation models for Encana (ECA) and Gulfport Energy (GPOR). They have been posted to the EPG website.

Encana has announced Q2 production that was higher than my forecast and I have raised my full-year forecast. Q2 will be the first full quarter of results since their merger with Newfield Exploration. The Company also announced details on their stock repurchase program. Encana is a large-cap with current production of approximately 600,000 Boepd (~55% liquids).

Gulfport now has ~99% of their natural gas production hedged at an average price of $2.84/mcf for the remainder of this year. Gulfport is a mid-cap that is producing approximately 220,000 Boepd today and they are on-track to exit this year with production over 245,000 Boepd (~90% natural gas). Gulfport's cash flow from operations is now exceeding their drilling & completions capex program. Excess cash flow is being used to fund their stock repurchase program.

Over the weekend I updated the forecast/valuation model for Continental Resources (CLR), raising my valuation to $85/share. CLR also announce an aggressive stock repurchase program.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: Fresh forecasts for ECA and GPOR on our website

Postby cviller » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:48 pm

Dan,
Do you have any idea how much stock they have repurchased?
Thanks.
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Re: Fresh forecasts for ECA and GPOR on our website

Postby dan_s » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:41 pm

My "guess" of how many shares that they will repurchase is near the bottom of each companies' forecast/valuation model.

Keep in mind that companies only do large stock repurchase programs when the board believes the stock is grossly undervalued.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: Fresh forecasts for ECA and GPOR on our website

Postby ChuckGeb » Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:07 am

GPOR’s 565mil drilling program is first half loaded and they spent 265mil +/-in Q1. They have projected 100mil fcf for 2019. They indicated that they will fund their stock repurchase program from asset sales and available liquidity. As such, I would be surprised if they have acquired any meaningful amount of shares to date.
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Re: Fresh forecasts for ECA and GPOR on our website

Postby dan_s » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:09 am

Gulfport's common stock outstanding:

183,106,000 < O/S shares at 12/31/2017
-20,120,000 < share reduction in 2018
162,986,000 < O/S shares at 12/31/2018
- 3,564,000 < share reduction in Q1 2019
159,422,000 = shares outstanding at 3/31/2019

They have continued to repurchases shares in Q2. My "guess" is that the outstanding share count will be down to 135 million by 12/31/2020.

Per Gulfport's May 2, 2019 press release

Stock Repurchase Program
As of May 1, 2019, the Company has repurchased 3.8 million shares totaling approximately $30 million during 2019.

In January 2019, Gulfport's board of directors authorized the Company to acquire up to $400 million of its outstanding common stock within a 24 month period and approximately $370 million remains available under the current authorization. Purchases under the repurchase program may be made from time to time in open market or privately negotiated transactions, and will be subject to market conditions, applicable legal requirements, contractual obligations and other factors. The repurchase program does not require the Company to acquire any specific number of shares. The Company intends to purchase shares under the repurchase program opportunistically with available funds while maintaining sufficient liquidity to fund its 2019 capital development program. This repurchase program may be suspended from time to time, accelerated, modified, extended or discontinued by the board of directors at any time.

The best place to look for stuff like this is any company's 10-K and 10-Q, which can be downloaded from most public company's website.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: Fresh forecasts for ECA and GPOR on our website

Postby dan_s » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:24 am

Encana makes Zacks "Top Five" list of energy stocks that are oversold: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/invest-5-oil-gas-stocks-121812458.html
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