Parsley Energy (PE) to acquire Jagged Peak (JAG) - Oct 14

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dan_s
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Parsley Energy (PE) to acquire Jagged Peak (JAG) - Oct 14

Post by dan_s »

Oct 14 (Reuters) - Oil and gas producer Parsley Energy Inc said on Monday it would buy Jagged Peak Energy Inc in an all-stock deal valued at about $1.62 billion.

Jagged Peak shareholders will receive 0.447 shares of Parsley Class A common stock for each share held, the company said.

The offer translates to $7.59 per Jagged Peak share based on Parsley stock's closing price on Friday.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Re: Parsley Energy (PE) to acquire Jagged Peak (JAG) - Oct 1

Post by dan_s »

Parsley Energy Announces Acquisition Of Jagged Peak Energy In All-Stock Transaction; Modest Premium Acquisition Enhances 2020 Free Cash Flow

AUSTIN, Texas and DENVER, Oct. 14, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Parsley Energy, Inc. (PE) ("Parsley," or "Parsley Energy") and Jagged Peak Energy Inc. (JAG) ("Jagged Peak") today announced they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Parsley will acquire Jagged Peak in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $2.27 billion, including Jagged Peak's net debt of approximately $625 million as of June 30, 2019. Under the terms of the agreement, Jagged Peak shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.447 shares of Parsley Class A common stock for each share of Jagged Peak common stock they own. This represents $7.59 per Jagged Peak share based on Parsley's closing price on October 11, 2019, and a premium of 1.5% compared to Jagged Peak's 30-day volume weighted average price and 11.2% compared to Jagged Peak's closing price on October 11, 2019.

The transaction, which is expected to close in the first quarter of 2020, has been unanimously approved by each company's board of directors. Following the close of the transaction, Parsley shareholders will own approximately 77% of the combined company, and Jagged Peak shareholders will own approximately 23% of the combined company, in each case on a fully diluted basis. The all-stock transaction is intended to be tax-free to Jagged Peak shareholders.

Key Transaction Highlights

Complementary, High-Margin Delaware Basin Footprint: Parsley possesses an institutional familiarity with Jagged Peak's Delaware Basin assets, with the majority of the acreage directly offsetting Parsley's legacy position. Furthermore, Jagged Peak's high-margin, oil-weighted asset base will integrate smoothly into Parsley's near-term development program. On a pro forma basis, Parsley will have approximately 267,000 net acres in the Permian, comprised of 147,000 net acres in the Midland Basin and a highly contiguous 120,000 net acre footprint in the Delaware Basin.

Accretive on Key Metrics: Parsley expects the low-premium transaction to be immediately accretive to key metrics in 2020, including: cash flow per share, free cash flow per share, cash return on capital invested, and net asset value.

Corporate Cost Optimization Accrues to Shareholders: The combination is expected to generate cash general and administrative ("G&A") savings of approximately $25 million in the first year and $40-50 million of annual savings thereafter, translating to a net present value of $250-300 million. Parsley expects this synergy to facilitate margin expansion and enhance corporate free cash flow.

Additional Synergies Clearly Identified: In addition to G&A savings, Parsley has identified further synergies that are anticipated to be realized over time:
Maintains Strong Balance Sheet: An all-stock transaction ensures the combined company will retain a strong balance sheet with a pro forma net leverage ratio of 1.6x LTM adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation, depletion, amortization, and exploration expense. Parsley expects to maintain its dividend per share at current levels in the near term, with the anticipated free cash flow enhancements from this transaction expected to support increased return of capital in the future. Finally, both Parsley and Jagged Peak recently added to their respective 2020 hedge positions, and a majority of the combined company's expected 2020 oil production is subject to hedge protection.

For details on Parsley and Jagged Peak's respective hedge positions, please see the presentation posted to each company's website that supplements the information in this release.

Management Commentary

"The combination of Parsley and Jagged Peak is a natural fit," said Matt Gallagher, Parsley's President and CEO. "Jagged Peak's oily, high-margin asset base slots in nicely to our returns-focused development approach, its acreage footprint and water infrastructure dovetails into our legacy Delaware Basin position, and its corporate culture aligns with our core values. In short, we now have a premier Delaware Basin business that rivals our foundational Midland Basin business. This transaction also creates tangible synergies that will enhance our corporate free cash flow profile and will be shared by the combined shareholder base. Ultimately, I am proud of the high level of execution Parsley has delivered throughout 2019, and I am excited by the prospects of what the combination of Parsley and Jagged Peak can deliver for shareholders in 2020."

Jim Kleckner, President and Chief Executive Officer of Jagged Peak, commented, "The combined assets of Jagged Peak and Parsley Energy are a great fit that create a stronger combined Permian company. The pro-forma company provides our shareholders with premier acreage in both the Midland and Delaware sub-basins, while providing additional scale, significant operational synergies, and free cash flow in this competitive environment. Our team has made tremendous progress to increase efficiencies as we evolved to pad development on our acreage position. We look forward to working closely with Parsley to ensure that we provide an efficient changeover of asset-level institutional knowledge, so our shareholders and the shareholders of Parsley Energy can reap the maximized benefits of this transaction."

S. Wil VanLoh, Jr., a Jagged Peak director and the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Quantum Energy Partners, Jagged Peak's controlling shareholder, commented, "The inevitable consolidation in the Permian has started and Jagged Peak made a decisive move to team up with the right partner. Quantum has known Bryan, Matt and the Parsley team for many years and has tremendous respect for the industry-leading execution capabilities and top-tier rock they possess. The combination of the two companies will create a unique platform that will benefit from scale, capital allocation optionality, and peer-leading economics (IRRs, oil-weighting and netback margins) that we believe will represent one of the most compelling investment vehicles in the Permian. We look forward to partnering with the Parsley team as they mature into a Permian pure-play large cap. I would also like to thank every current and former employee of Jagged Peak for creating a great private equity success story and for positioning Jagged Peak's shareholders for continued value creation in a very tough macro energy environment. It's been an honor being your partner."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Re: Parsley Energy (PE) to acquire Jagged Peak (JAG) - Oct 1

Post by dan_s »

I am travelling this week, so I will prepare a Pro Forma forecast/valuation model next week showing what Parsley looks like post-merger.

Q2 production:
Parsley Energy: 140,099 Boepd (61.8% crude oil)
Jagged Peak: 38,259 Boepd (76.1% crude oil)

The combined exit rate on December 31, 2019 s/b over 200.000 Boepd
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dave_n
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Re: Parsley Energy (PE) to acquire Jagged Peak (JAG) - Oct 1

Post by dave_n »

And unfortunately, that puts you on the daily "most active" and "biggest losers" list. All stock deals dilute shareholder value and will not be perceived favorably by the market. If it's that good of a deal, pay cash.
dan_s
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Re: Parsley Energy (PE) to acquire Jagged Peak (JAG) - Oct 1

Post by dan_s »

The initial reaction by the market is that the Buyer paid too much, especially on a day that oil is down. However, an all-stock deal makes sense when the Buyer believes their stock is under-valued.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
mkarpoff
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Re: Parsley Energy (PE) to acquire Jagged Peak (JAG) - Oct 1

Post by mkarpoff »

I don't think so. I think you buy back stock when you think it is undervalued, but you buy other companies when you think your stock is overvalued.
dan_s
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Re: Parsley Energy (PE) to acquire Jagged Peak (JAG) - Oct 1

Post by dan_s »

Generally speaking, an all-stock transaction should be completed when the management team at the acquiring firm believes that their shares are richly valued or overvalued. This is because the firm is essentially using their stock as inflated currency to buy a cheaper asset. An exception to this rule, however, is when the firm being acquired is either roughly as cheap as or cheaper than the acquiring business. This exception appears to be the case between Parsley and Jagged Peak.
Read more: https://seekingalpha.com/article/429686 ... e-marriage

In the last 3 months, 9 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for JAG that range from $8.00 to $14.00. The average price target among the 9 analysts is $10.00.
First Call's price target is $9.67

My valuation of JAG as a stand alone company is $8.50/share. It is trading at $7.17 today.

Today I am updating the JAG forecast and the PE forecast. I will then combine them for 2020 to see what PE will look like "Post-Merger".
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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