Matador Resources (MTDR) Update - Jan 16

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dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Matador Resources (MTDR) Update - Jan 16

Post by dan_s »

MTDR was added back to the Sweet 16 on 1-1-2022.
It closed at $45.35 on Friday, January 14; up 22.75% YTD.

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 8 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for MTDR. The average price target among the analysts is $55.29. On 1/14/2022 Truist Securities analyst Neal Dingmann raised the price target on Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR) to $66.00 (from $65.00) while maintaining a Buy rating."

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for MTDR and it will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
I have raised my valuation by $4 to $62.00.

I have followed and modeled Matador for over five years. Now that they are focused on generating FCF and steady growth, the stock has a lot of upside for us.
> It is primarily a Permian Basin company with a smaller core area in the South Texas Eagle Ford.
> It is focused on Production Growth and until 2021 it has been outspending operating cash flow to increase production and proven reserves by more than 12% each year.
> Production will be down from Q3 to Q4 2021 (based on the company's guidance) because they needed to shut-in some wells to complete new wells from the same pads. The new wells came on strong and should add a lot of proven reserves. Production will bounce back in Q1 2022.
> All of their "Bad Hedges" expired last month and operating cash flow and free cash flow should be up BIG in 2022.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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