Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Update - Jan 17

dan_s · Post by **dan_s** » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:56 am

If NOG's Q4 results and 2022 guidance confirms my forecast/valuation model assumptions, my stock valuation will be going much higher and NOG could be one of my Top Picks in the Sweet 16. Why?, because my current valuation is based on a low multiple of operating cash flow per share (just 4.5X) because of higher than normal uncertainty because of the Veritas Acquisition that has yet to close. Today, my forecast assumes that the acquisition closes mid-Q1 2022.
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I have updated my forecast/valuation model, extending it thru 2023.
My valuation increases by $4 to $42.00 per share.
NOG closed at $23.85 on Friday, January 14

NOG was added to the Sweet 16 because of its strong production growth (~60% YOY in 2021 and ~35% YOY estimated for 2022). It has also announced an attractive dividend policy.

You can find my recent profile on NOG under the Sweet 16 tab on the EPG website.