Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Q4 Preview - Feb 19

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dan_s
Posts: 34467
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Q4 Preview - Feb 19

Post by dan_s »

On January 17th Gulfport announced their Q4 production, realized commodity prices, their 2019 guidance and their 2019 capital expenditure budget. They also announced an aggressive stock repurchase program that could reduce their outstanding share count by 30%. There should not be a surprise when they announce Q4 results late today. I am most interested in seeing their year-end proven reserve report.

Since January 17th, six analysts have updated their forecast/valuation models on file with Reuters / First Call. Four of them rate GPOR a BUY, one rates it a HOLD and one rates it a SELL. Their valuations range from $7 to $16 per share. The $7 valuation only makes sense if you believe Gulfport's realized gas price for ALL FUTURE PERIODS is going to be under $2.00/mcf. Since Gulfport has ~85% of their 2019 gas hedged at $2.81, that is impossible. So, dropping the $7 valuation, the others average $14.50/share. GPOR is currently trading for $8.02/share.

IMO whenever you see one of the Wall Street Gang go super negative on a stock it is because the company did something that made him look bad. The "scorned" analyst will put the company in the "penalty box" or drop coverage all together.

Gulfport's "Adjusted Net Income" (primarily ignoring the mark-to-market non-cash adjustment on their hedges) should be approximately $95 million ($0.55 to $0.60 EPS) and cash flow from operations should be $210 to $220 million for the 4th quarter. First Call is now forecasting $1.27 EPS and $4.50 operating cash flow per share in 2019, including one very low forecast. Cash flow from operations in Q4 and in all future periods should exceed their capital program. Gulfport is growing production and generating FREE CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS.

Gulfport has a new CEO. He has some work to do to regain the trust of the Wall Street Gang.

NOTE: All of our "gassers" (AR, GPOR, RRC and SWN) have a lot of their gas hedged for 2019, so unless their is a BIG drop in gas prices, my valuations will not change much.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34467
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Q4 Preview - Feb 19

Post by dan_s »

Gulfport will release Q4 results on February 27. For some reason ("a senior moment") I thought they were announcing results today.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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