Sweet 16 Update - March 23

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Sweet 16 Update - March 23

Post by dan_s »

Despite Friday's pullback, our Sweet 16 moved 1.96% higher during the week ending March 22. The portfolio is up 10.7% YTD.

Antero Resources (down 10.65% YTD) and Centennial Resource Development (down 20.96% YTD) are the only two stocks down for the year.

Antero Resources (AR) and Range Resources (RRC) are the only two companies that reported losses for the year 2018. That is because they both had so much gas hedged. As natural gas prices moved higher into year-end, they both had to book massive mark-to-market non-cash losses on those hedges. With natural gas prices pulling back in Q1 a big chunk of those losses will be reversed and included in Q1 "Reported Earnings". GAAP/SEC accounting rules for hedges are stupid and confusing. IMO if you mark-to-market hedges you need to mark-to-market the assets that are being hedged.

AR, GPOR, RRC and SWN are all very profitable at today's gas and NGL prices.

I will post more comments about the Sweet 16 on Saturday.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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