Stifel Update - June 17

[dan_s]

ECA announced prelim. 2Q liquid volumes of ~320
MBbld, at the top end of guidance and above expectations with most of the
upside surprise driven by higher oil from STACK.

COG preliminarily expects a 2020 capex budget of $700 - $800MM (vs. prior CSe/consensus
of $780/$795MM and $800MM this year) which we estimate should enable
high - single - digit growth (vs. prior CSe/consensus of ~14% YoY) as it
increasingly shifts toward more pad development; we lowered our forecasts
for 2020 capex to $750MM and volume growth to ~8% YoY, leaving its FCF
(post - dividend) little changed at ~$355MM under current strip prices.

EQT - Team Rice proxy fight continued this week, with both sides sending
letters to shareholders largely reiterating prior comments. In an interview
with Bloomberg News, Toby Rice said they were open to a possible
settlement which didn’t necessarily include his taking on the CEO role.

CPE closed on the sale of their Ranger asset for $245M, with proceeds going
toward taking out their preferred stock as well as further debt reduction; we
estimate net debt leverage of 2 .8x at YE19 falling to ~2.5x at YE20.

We also published a note following 2 days of management meetings in Denver.
We met with AR, CDEV, JAG, PDCE, QEP, SM, SRCI, XEC and XOG .
Despite recent volatility, operations remain on track and management
teams largely reiterated their commitment to capital discipline. Operators
mostly pointed to continued efficiency gains pulling forward 2019 activity;
however the preference now appears firmly on maintaining capex and
slowing down activity in 2H19 rather than doing more with the same
rig/crew fleet.