Pro Forma forecast for PDEC + SRCI Merger

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Pro Forma forecast for PDEC + SRCI Merger

Post by dan_s »

I have combined the forecast models for PDCE and SRCI to show the impact of the all-stock merger. The "Pro Forma Forecast" has been posted to the EPG website.
Note that my valuation of PDCE is based on a very low multiple of operating cash flow per share. A company with this much running room, a strong balance sheet and 10% annual production growth locked in should be trading for AT LEAST 6X operating cash flow per share.

The merger should close by year-end.
> PDCE will be the 2nd largest producer in the DJ Basin in 2020 with over 200,000 Boepd of production
> Lots of free cash flow from operations will fund an aggressive stock repurchase plan
> Strong balance sheet + lots of running room
> 10% to 12% annual production growth.
> Production mix of approximately 41.5% crude oil, 20.3% NGLs and 38.2% natural gas

Read this:
PDC Energy Announces Strategic Combination with SRC Energy in All-Stock Transaction
August 26, 2019 at 6:00 AM EDT

Creates Premier Mid-Cap Operator with Peer-Leading Cost Structure and Free Cash Flow Profile

Increases Share Repurchase Program from $200 million to $525 million

Immediately Accretive to all Key Financial Metrics

Companies to Host a Joint Investor Call Today at 8:00 a.m. ET / 6:00 a.m. MT < Replay and slides are still on the PDC Energy website

DENVER, Aug. 26, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDC Energy, Inc. ("PDC" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: PDCE) and SRC Energy, Inc. (“SRC”) (NYSE: SRCI) today announced they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which PDC will acquire SRC in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $1.7 billion, including SRC’s net debt of approximately $685 million as of June 30, 2019. Under the terms of the agreement, SRC shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.158 PDC shares for each share of SRC common stock, representing an implied value of $3.99 per share based on the PDC closing price as of August 23, 2019. The transaction, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2019, has been unanimously approved by each company’s board of directors.

Key Transaction Highlights:

Materially increases PDC’s scale with a consolidated, contiguous Core Wattenberg leasehold position of approximately 182,000 net acres located entirely in Weld County and pro forma second quarter 2019 total production of nearly 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent (“Boe”) per day (166,000 Boe per day in the Wattenberg). On a pro forma basis, the combined company is the second largest producer in the DJ basin. Coupled with its approximate 36,000 net acre Delaware Basin position, the Company will have core assets in two of the premier U.S. onshore basins.

Materially enhances free cash flow profile and enhances ability to return additional capital to shareholders. Pro forma free cash flow is estimated to be approximately $800 million from the third quarter of 2019 through year-end 2021, assuming $55 per barrel NYMEX. PDC has increased and extended its existing share repurchase program from $200 million to $525 million, with a target completion date of year-end 2021. Year-to-date, PDC has repurchased $125 million of its shares and plans to utilize approximately 50 percent of the estimated $800 million of free cash flow in the same period to complete the remaining $400 million repurchase program.

Creates a low-cost mid-cap producer with anticipated peer-leading G&A of approximately $2.00 per Boe in 2020. PDC expects to realize approximately $40 million of G&A savings in 2020 with an incremental $10 million of G&A synergies in 2021, after the completion of its integration plan.

All-stock transaction ensures the combined company will have a strong balance sheet with a pro forma leverage ratio of 1.3x at June 30, 2019 and projected leverage ratio of approximately 1.0x at year-end 2020, assuming $55 per barrel NYMEX.

The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to key 2020 metrics, including: free cash flow per share, cash return on capital invested (“CROCI”), net asset value, G&A per Boe, LOE per Boe, leverage ratio and inventory life.

CEO Commentary

“SRC’s complementary, high-quality assets in the Core Wattenberg, coupled with our existing inventory and track record of operational excellence will create a best-in-class operator with the size, scale and financial positioning to thrive in today’s market,” said Bart Brookman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PDC. “We remain committed to our core Delaware Basin acreage position and are confident the combined company with its multi-basin focus will be well-positioned to deliver superior shareholder returns. With an even more competitive cost structure, including peer-leading G&A and LOE per Boe, the combined company will have the financial flexibility and sustainable free cash flow to return significant capital to shareholders and capitalize on additional growth opportunities.”

Brookman continued, “Importantly, this transaction will join two organizations grounded in strong core values and a shared commitment to responsible and safe operations. Both PDC and SRC have deep regulatory and community relationships, and together we will continue to prioritize the health and safety of our employees and stakeholders, as well as the environment and the communities in which we live and operate. We look forward to working with SRC to integrate these two companies and achieve our shared objectives.”

Lynn A. Peterson, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of SRC Energy commented, “I am proud of the SRC team and the high-quality acreage and low-cost operations we have built together. We believe that this transaction will establish the combined company as a leader in the Colorado energy industry. The transaction also provides SRC shareholders with the opportunity to participate in the significant upside potential created by a larger-scale DJ Basin producer with complementary assets in the prolific Delaware Basin. We look forward to working closely with PDC to ensure that the full potential of this combination is realized for the benefit of all of our stakeholders."

Strategic and Financial Benefits of the Combination

Creates a Leading Colorado Energy Producer. On a pro forma basis, PDC will have approximately 182,000 consolidated Core Wattenberg net acres, of which nearly 100 percent is located in Weld County, Colorado. The consolidated footprint will enable an efficient, clearly-communicated long-term development plan with a focus on minimizing surface usage through capital efficient long-laterals and continued emphasis on eliminating trucking, as over 95 percent of anticipated oil production will be transported via pipeline. Approximately 80 percent of the pro forma gross acreage position is in unincorporated rural Weld County, while the remaining 20 percent is located within Weld County local municipal boundaries, with the city of Greeley accounting for approximately half of that total. PDC commits to continue its investment in its community-focused programs while actively engaging with local communities, regulators and elected officials to safely and responsibly develop its leasehold position. Approximately half of municipal permits submitted have received local approval, with the remaining in process.

Enhances Size and Scale. Including both the DJ and Delaware Basin, the pro forma company has year-end 2018 SEC proved reserves of approximately 850 MMBoe and expects to exit 2019 producing approximately 200,000 Boe per day. Anticipated 2019 Wattenberg production of approximately 166,000 Boe per day will make the combined company one of the largest producer in the DJ Basin and strengthens its relationships with service and midstream providers. Based on PDC’s planned 2020 Wattenberg activity level of three drilling rigs, the transaction will increase PDC’s Wattenberg inventory life to greater than ten years with additional upside should PDC implement SRC’s spacing assumptions to portions of its pro forma position.

Improves Free Cash Flow Profile. The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to PDC’s free cash flow and free cash flow per share in 2020. Assuming $55 per barrel NYMEX oil, the pro forma company expects to generate approximately $800 million of free cash flow between the second half of 2019 and year-end 2021. Approximately half of this sum is expected to be returned to shareholders through the increased share repurchase program, which has a target completion date of year-end 2021. The remaining free cash flow will provide the flexibility to pay down debt, return incremental capital to shareholders and capitalize on accretive growth opportunities.

Drives Significant Corporate Synergies. PDC expects the combination to generate significant corporate synergies including annual G&A savings of approximately $50 million. PDC expects to realize approximately $40 million of G&A savings in 2020, resulting in an anticipated pro forma 2020 G&A of approximately $2.00 per Boe. Following an integration period, the PDC expects an incremental $10 million of G&A synergies in 2021. Additionally, PDC anticipates its pro forma margins per Boe will improve following the completion of the transaction as it expects to benefit from an oilier production mix, lower G&A per Boe and slightly improved LOE per Boe.

Maintains Strong Balance Sheet and Financial Flexibility. The pro forma company will maintain a strong, through-cycle balance sheet with pro forma leverage of 1.3x as of June 30, 2019 and an estimated year-end 2020 leverage ratio of approximately 1.0x. PDC expects to have ample liquidity on its pro forma borrowing base after closing. PDC’s increased scale and conservative financial profile, is expected to enhance its credit profile and decrease its overall cost of capital.
Preliminary Pro Forma 2020 Outlook

PDC’s long-term strategy is to be a low-cost operator that generates and returns free cash flow to shareholders, while delivering solid production and cash flow growth on a debt-adjusted per share basis. In 2020, PDC plans to invest between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion to operate three Wattenberg and two Delaware Basin drilling rigs. The plan is expected to generate approximately $275 million in free cash flow assuming $55 per barrel and $2.70 per Mcf NYMEX oil and gas prices, respectively, with full-year production averaging between 200,000 and 220,000 Boe per day. Finally, PDC expects its combined G&A and LOE to be less than $5 per Boe.

Transaction Details

Under the terms of the agreement, SRC shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.158 PDC shares for each share of SRC common stock they own, representing an implied value of $3.99 per SRC share based on PDC’s closing common stock price on August 23, 2019, or $1.7 billion in the aggregate including the assumption of approximately $685 million in debt. The consideration represents a premium of 6.8 percent to the 30-day average exchange ratio of 0.148x. Upon closing of the transaction, PDC shareholders will own approximately 62 percent of the combined company, and SRC shareholders will own approximately 38 percent, on a fully diluted basis. The all-stock transaction is intended to be tax-free to SRC shareholders.

Governance and Leadership

Upon closing, PDCs’ board of directors will be expanded to nine directors, expected to include two members from the SRC board of directors. PDC’s board of directors also plans to form a three-member group focused on integration planning and opportunities for ongoing corporate synergies and cost efficiencies. The combined company will be led by PDC’s executive management team and will remain headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Timing and Approvals

The transaction, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2019, is subject to customary closing conditions and the satisfaction of certain regulatory approvals, including the approval of PDC and SRC shareholders.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Pro Forma forecast for PDEC + SRCI Merger

Post by dan_s »

As of 9-13-2019 (before recent spike in oil price) Stifel's price target was $45/share for PDCE with a 4P NAV of $64.19.

Stifel's "4P NAV" is basically what they believe the company would sell for in an arms-length negotiated sale (i.e. - a competitive data room).

In the last 3 months, 9 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for PDCE or $38 to $66 per share. The average price target among the analysts is $45.25.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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