Sweet 16 Update - Nov 16

[dan_s]

Several Sweet 16 profiles are in the "Q"
> Callon will be sent out on Saturday morning.
> Concho will be sent out on Monday morning.
> EOG will be sent out on Wednesday morning.

The profiles and updated forecast models should all be up on the website Saturday morning.

We are still working on Parsley Energy (PE), Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure (SOI) and Talos Energy (TALO). I hope to finish the TALO profile on Saturday. All 16 forecast/valuation models have been updated and they can be downloaded from the EPG website. All of the Small-Cap and High Yield forecast models (except for MIND, which has not announced their fiscal q3 results) are also updated and on the website.

The main Sweet 16 spreadsheet now shows my Q4 earnings per share forecast for each company (column M). My stock valuations can be found under Tab 2.

Susan & I will be traveling on her "Birthday Cruise" next week, but I will be checking the market and EPG Forum when I have time. RCL has significantly improved the internet connections on all of their big ships.

The 8th annual EPG Cruise is all set for January 11 to 18. We sail from Miami on the world's largest cruise ship: RCL's Symphony of the Seas. We have 30 people going this year. I'm trying to talk Susan into the 9th EPG Cruise being to Alaska next summer. Our cruises and EPG Villa Trips are fantastic.

Oil prices are heading in the right direction and WTI will move over $60/bbl if Team Trump can get China to sign off on the "Phase One Trade Agreement". On Friday we saw WTI close $1.05 higher on "Trade Agreement Optimism". It was a small "technical breakout" as WTI's 200 day moving average is now tilting upward. The active drilling rig count continues to fall and EIA will have to eventually admit that U.S. oil production can't go higher if we aren't drilling enough new wells to offset the decline in old wells. The math just doesn't work at the current active rig count.

As I said at our luncheon on Wednesday: "They call them 'cycles' for a reason."

Our next luncheon in Houston is all set for December 11th. You can find details on the EPG Website on Monday.