EOG Resources (EOG) Q4 Results - Feb 28

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

EOG Resources (EOG) Q4 Results - Feb 28

Post by dan_s »

I will finish updating my forecast model for EOG today, but Q4 looks very good and here is Stifel's take.

EOG Resources Inc. (EOG, $60.00, Buy; Target $115.00)
Boosting Dividend Following Solid 4Q Beat - Michael S. Scialla

We view the release as slightly positive. The positives include: i) a solid 4Q19 beat across the board; ii) the annual dividend was increased 30%, implying a dividend yield of 2.5%; iii) proved reserve additions increased 14% at an attractive F&D cost of less than $9/Boe; iv) 2020 capex guidance was 4% below consensus. The negatives include: i) 2020 oil production guidance was 2% below consensus; ii) 1Q20 oil production/capex guidance were 2% below/24% above consensus as infrastructure contributed to a front-end loaded capital plan.
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Press Release Highlights

EOG Resources Reports Excellent Fourth Quarter and Full‐Year 2019 Results; Announces 2020
Capital Program; Raises Dividend by 30 Percent

- Increased Common Stock Dividend by 30 Percent to $1.50 Indicated Annual Rate
- Earned $2.7 Billion Net Income in 2019, or $4.71 per Share
- Generated $8.2 Billion Net Cash from Operating Activities and Significant Free Cash Flow < Compares to my operating cash flow forecast of $7,656.7 million.
- Exceeded Fourth Quarter and Full‐Year 2019 Crude Oil Production Target with Capital

Expenditures Below Target
- Lease and Well and DD&A Expense Rates Below Target in Fourth Quarter and Full‐Year 2019
- Increased Proved Reserves by 14% and Replaced 253% of 2019 Production at $8.21 per Boe

Finding Cost
- $6.3 to $6.7 Billion Capital Program Targets 10‐14% Crude Oil Volume Growth in 2020
- 2020 Capital Program and Dividend Funded with Net Cash from Operating Activities at Oil Prices Below $50
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: EOG Resources (EOG) Q4 Results - Feb 28

Post by dan_s »

Since January 6th, ten Wall Street Firms have published new reports on EOG. Their price targets range from $91 to $115.

EOG's oil was unhedged heading into Q4. They now have ~42% of their 1H 2020 oil hedged at more than $59.00/bbl.

I'm updating my forecast/valuation model now and it will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon. EOG sits at the top of my "Elite Eight".
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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