Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Q1 Results - May 9

Post Reply
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Q1 Results - May 9

Post by dan_s »

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Announces First Quarter 2022 Results
My comments are in blue.

HOUSTON, May 09, 2022--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation ("Magnolia," "we," "our," or the "Company") (NYSE: MGY) today announced its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2022.

First Quarter 2022 Highlights:

Magnolia reported first quarter 2022 net income attributable to Class A Common Stock of $166.0 million, or $0.90 per diluted share. First quarter 2022 total net income increased 128% to $208.6 million and diluted weighted average total shares outstanding decreased by 9% to 227.4 million compared to first quarter 2021. < Beat my forecast of $144.7 million net income.

Adjusted EBITDAX was $298.4 million during the first quarter of 2022, driven by strong production growth and significantly higher product prices as compared to prior year results. Total drilling and completions ("D&C") capital during the first quarter was $83.4 million, representing just 28% of adjusted EBITDAX.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $238.9 million during the first quarter and the Company generated free cash flow of $197.9 million. Magnolia generated operating income as a percentage of revenue of 62%. < MGY's Adjusted Operating Cash Flow (before changes in Working Capital) was $268.2 million, which compares to my forecast of $273.6 million.

Total production in the first quarter of 2022 grew 15% from the first quarter of 2021 to 71.8 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day ("Mboe/d") and at the high end of our production guidance, led by our Giddings asset. Production at Giddings and Other of 42.9 Mboe/d in the first quarter of 2022 grew 24% compared to the prior year first quarter including year-over-year oil production growth of 31%. < My Q1 production forecast was 70,300 Boe per day.

During the first quarter, Magnolia repurchased a total of 6.0 million shares of Class A and Class B Common Stock for $129.6 million. At the end of the first quarter, Magnolia had 14.3 million Class A Common shares remaining under its current repurchase authorization.

During the quarter, Magnolia paid the final semi-annual cash dividend related to 2021 results of $0.20 per share, bringing the total dividend payment associated with 2021 to $0.28 per share. Magnolia ended the year with $346.4 million of cash on the balance sheet. The Company remains undrawn on its $450 million revolving credit facility, with no debt maturities until 2026 and has no plans to increase its debt levels. < This is VERY GOOD NEWS for holders of this stock.

We currently expect our D&C capital to be approximately $400 million for 2022, compared to our earlier guidance of $350 million. The increase is due to additional net wells in Giddings resulting from faster drilling times, the drilling of longer laterals, as well as other operational efficiencies, combined with oil field service cost inflation. These efficiencies and longer laterals result in greater well activity and are now expected to provide full year 2022 production growth in excess of 10%, compared to our previous estimate of high single-digit growth. < Capex budget compares to my operating cash flow forecast of $1,252 million. This company is generating a lot of free cash flow and they are on track for 10% YOY production growth.

"We had a very strong start to the year as demonstrated by our record quarterly financial and operating results," said Chairman, President, and CEO Steve Chazen. "The ongoing execution of our strategy and business plan, which includes disciplined capital spending, continues to provide moderate and steady production growth, high pre-tax operating margins, and significant free cash flow. The absence of hedges which resulted in strong product price realizations, combined with our continued efforts around cost containment, is reflected in record quarterly pre-tax operating margins of 62 percent. Our operating team continues to make strong progress steadily advancing the development of our Giddings asset. As Giddings is still in the relatively early stages of development, our team has been successful in offsetting some of the oil field cost inflation through ongoing efficiency gains.

"During the first quarter of 2022, we grew our total production by more than 3 percent sequentially while spending just 28 percent of our adjusted EBITDAX. We generated nearly $200 million of free cash flow during the quarter and returned 89 percent of this to our shareholders, mainly through share repurchases of $130 million as well as $46 million for the final semi-annual dividend payment related to our 2021 results. We repurchased a total of 6 million shares during the first quarter, and our total diluted shares outstanding declined by 9 percent compared to last year’s first quarter. Despite the significant return of cash to our shareholders, we ended the quarter with $346 million of cash on our balance sheet, and roughly unchanged during the quarter.

"We continue to operate two drilling rigs with one completion crew split between our two assets at Giddings and in the Karnes County area. Our gradual and measured approach toward both the appraisal and development of the Giddings field has created operating efficiencies leading to some acceleration of our well activity this year. Faster drilling combined with the drilling of longer laterals at Giddings, and oil field service cost inflation is expected to add a small amount of capital to our program for the remainder of the year. This is also expected to boost our full year production growth to more than 10 percent compared to our previous outlook of high single-digits. At current product prices, we expect our capital spending to be around a third of our adjusted EBITDAX, well-below our 55 percent spending cap, and resulting in significant free cash flow. Most of the free cash flow is expected to be allocated toward improving the per share value of the company, including our plan to repurchase more than 1 percent of our outstanding shares each quarter. We would also expect our dividend to grow at least 10 percent annually based on the continued successful execution of our strategy."
-----------------------
My pre-release valuation of $32.00 for MGY is likely to go up. I will update my forecast/valuation model on Tuesday morning and post additional comments here.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Post Reply