Details from the EIA weekly report

Details from the EIA weekly report

Postby dan_s » Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:13 pm

Here is the link:

> U.S. crude oil production DECLINED week to week from 12.4 MMBbls/day to 12.3 MMBbls/day. Not a big deal, because this is a pure "Wild Ass Guess" by EIA anyway. Actuals for February & March show us how much EIA overstated U.S. oil production in Q1.
> U.S. refineries are ramping up the amount of crude oil that they are processing.
> Days of Supply, which is much more important than comparing inventories to the 5-year average since we use a lot more oil based products today.
>> Crude oil = 28.8 days, down 0.1 from last week's report
>> Gasoline = 22.3 days, down 0.2 from last week's report
>> Jet Fuel = 21.9 days, up 0.2 from last week's report. < anything under 20 days of supply is extremely tight supply.
>> Distillates = 32.4 days of supply, down 0.9 from last week's report.

Crude oil inventory builds after May are a concern, but as you can see from the days of supply numbers, there is no "glut" of oil. AND gasoline and jet fuel inventories are tight.

Crude oil imports the last two weeks have been higher than expected, but that is just moving oil from storage on a ship to storage on land. Refiners building crude inventories (their raw material) is expected leading up to the spike in refined products demand that comes each summer.

The silver lining in today's bearish storage report is that OPEC+ is now 99.9% sure to extend the product cuts through year-end. They cannot live with sub-$60 Brent for long.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Posts: 23063
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

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