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Oil & Gas Market Update (podcast) - May 31
Oil & Gas Market Update (podcast) - May 31
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Market Update (podcast) - May 31
Rystad Energy just released (dated 6-1-2020)
In another consecutive update of our weekly estimates, our newest forecast for oil demand now projects a decrease of 11.5% for 2020, or 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year. Our estimates show that total oil demand in 2019 was approximately 99.5 million bpd, which is now projected to fall to 88.1 million bpd in 2020.
> May demand is expected to fall by 20.5% to 78.5 million bpd.
> June demand is forecast at 84 million bpd, down by 14.5% year-on-year.
> Further ahead, total oil demand in 2021 is expected to average at 96.3 million bpd.
This update takes into account developments that have occurred up to and including Tuesday, 26 May
-----------------------------
Basically, Rystad is forecasting that global demand for all transportation fuel demand will bounce back to over 95% of 2019 levels except for jet fuel.
Read full article here: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/20 ... owngraded/
Rystad's numbers line up with Adam Rosenzweig's article which I highlight on slide two of my May 31 podcast.
In another consecutive update of our weekly estimates, our newest forecast for oil demand now projects a decrease of 11.5% for 2020, or 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year. Our estimates show that total oil demand in 2019 was approximately 99.5 million bpd, which is now projected to fall to 88.1 million bpd in 2020.
> May demand is expected to fall by 20.5% to 78.5 million bpd.
> June demand is forecast at 84 million bpd, down by 14.5% year-on-year.
> Further ahead, total oil demand in 2021 is expected to average at 96.3 million bpd.
This update takes into account developments that have occurred up to and including Tuesday, 26 May
-----------------------------
Basically, Rystad is forecasting that global demand for all transportation fuel demand will bounce back to over 95% of 2019 levels except for jet fuel.
Read full article here: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/20 ... owngraded/
Rystad's numbers line up with Adam Rosenzweig's article which I highlight on slide two of my May 31 podcast.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Market Update (podcast) - May 31
Bloomberg 5-31-2020
OPEC+ is set to discuss a short extension of its current output cuts, according to a delegate, as the cartel considers bringing forward its next meeting a few days to June 4.
The cartel and its allies are considering extending the current cuts for one to three months, the delegate said. As the situation in the oil market is moving fast, the preference is to take short-term measures and not disrupt the rebalancing of the market, the delegate said.
The existing deal -- struck in April as energy demand and prices collapsed because of the coronavirus pandemic -- calls for output curbs to ease from July. But that’s up for discussion at the next meeting. Russia wants to start easing from July, people familiar with the situation said last week.
Oil prices have rallied as the output cuts coincided with a stronger-than-expected rebound in demand. But with lockdowns easing across the globe, fears that the pandemic could have a second wave make predictions of a recovery perilous. At about $35 a barrel, prices are below what most producers (OPEC+ NOCs) need for government spending.
The date of the meeting, which will be held by video conference, was still to be confirmed late on Sunday, after people familiar with the situation said OPEC members were close to an agreement to bring it forward to June 4.
An earlier date would give the oil cartel more flexibility to change its current production limits. OPEC members usually decide their plans for shipping oil to customers for July in the first week of June, so an earlier meeting would give them more time to react.
Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab, who holds the rotating presidency, proposed June 4, instead of June 9-10.
The 23-nation OPEC+ coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is undertaking record oil-production cuts to prop up prices. At the meeting they will decide whether to keep the existing agreement, or extend the current curbs.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners committed to lowering output by 9.7 million barrels a day, or about 10% of global supply, in May and June. In addition, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates made further voluntary cuts of about 1.2 million barrels a day for June, bringing the total OPEC+ curbs to almost 11 million barrels a day.
Production cuts are meant to be eased to about 7.7 million barrels a day in July.
Nigeria and the state oil company of Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital, have already announced plans to increase exports in July in line with the OPEC+ deal from April.
If the decision to move the meeting is confirmed, it would mean also shifting committee meetings that normally take place before a ministerial conference to later in the month.
OPEC has an Economic Commission Board meeting scheduled for June 2-3, and a Joint Technical Committee to assess implementation of the current supply cuts on June 5.
OPEC+ is set to discuss a short extension of its current output cuts, according to a delegate, as the cartel considers bringing forward its next meeting a few days to June 4.
The cartel and its allies are considering extending the current cuts for one to three months, the delegate said. As the situation in the oil market is moving fast, the preference is to take short-term measures and not disrupt the rebalancing of the market, the delegate said.
The existing deal -- struck in April as energy demand and prices collapsed because of the coronavirus pandemic -- calls for output curbs to ease from July. But that’s up for discussion at the next meeting. Russia wants to start easing from July, people familiar with the situation said last week.
Oil prices have rallied as the output cuts coincided with a stronger-than-expected rebound in demand. But with lockdowns easing across the globe, fears that the pandemic could have a second wave make predictions of a recovery perilous. At about $35 a barrel, prices are below what most producers (OPEC+ NOCs) need for government spending.
The date of the meeting, which will be held by video conference, was still to be confirmed late on Sunday, after people familiar with the situation said OPEC members were close to an agreement to bring it forward to June 4.
An earlier date would give the oil cartel more flexibility to change its current production limits. OPEC members usually decide their plans for shipping oil to customers for July in the first week of June, so an earlier meeting would give them more time to react.
Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab, who holds the rotating presidency, proposed June 4, instead of June 9-10.
The 23-nation OPEC+ coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is undertaking record oil-production cuts to prop up prices. At the meeting they will decide whether to keep the existing agreement, or extend the current curbs.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners committed to lowering output by 9.7 million barrels a day, or about 10% of global supply, in May and June. In addition, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates made further voluntary cuts of about 1.2 million barrels a day for June, bringing the total OPEC+ curbs to almost 11 million barrels a day.
Production cuts are meant to be eased to about 7.7 million barrels a day in July.
Nigeria and the state oil company of Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital, have already announced plans to increase exports in July in line with the OPEC+ deal from April.
If the decision to move the meeting is confirmed, it would mean also shifting committee meetings that normally take place before a ministerial conference to later in the month.
OPEC has an Economic Commission Board meeting scheduled for June 2-3, and a Joint Technical Committee to assess implementation of the current supply cuts on June 5.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group