Oil Price technical analysis - Jan 17

Oil Price technical analysis - Jan 17

Postby dan_s » Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:55 am

Crude Oil is Heading Towards Highs
By:Dmitriy Gurkovskiy for FX Empire
Published: Jan 17, 2022, 11:27 CST•2min read

Brent oil price remains “in the black”; investors are clearly intending to update 7-year highs in the instrument. Brent is trading at $86.40 and may continue improving.

So, oil is trading close to its 7-year highs and market players are focused on nothing but positive news. On one hand, the oil price is supported by the fact that investors are absolutely sure of the stable and strong demand for energies. Some OPEC+ members are really behind the previously approved oil extraction plans – this is another reason for buying oil right now. On the other hand, Libya is back to its normal pace of oil production after repairing the pipelines. In addition to that, the rumour has it that China will sell oil from its strategic reserves closer to the Lunar New Year. This news is rather negative for the commodity market.

Last Friday’s report from Baker Hughes showed that the Oil Rig Count in the US added 11 units, up to 492. The same happened in Canada, with +43 units.

Technical analysis
In the H4 chart, having completed the ascending structure at $83.96 and broken this level, Brent continues trading upwards. Today, the asset may reach $87.55 and then start a new correction towards $80.00. Later, the market may form another ascending structure with the target at 91.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 inside the histogram area, thus indicating a further uptrend in the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around $84.12 and breaking it to the upside, Brent continues growing with the short-term target at $87.65. After that, the instrument may correct to return to $84.12 and then resume growing with the target at $91.00. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving upwards to break 50 and may later continue growing to reach 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
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My WAG is that oil prices take a "Pause" in the low $80s before a move over $100 sometime in Q2. My forecast models all assume WTI will average $80/bbl in 2022 and 2023.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: Oil Price technical analysis - Jan 17

Postby dan_s » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:02 am

Trading Economics:
"WTI crude futures traded around $84 per barrel on Monday, nearing a multi-year high reached in October 2021 as the bull run in oil prices showed no signs of slowing down. Oil prices continued to trend higher amid concerns over tightness in the oil market, with investors shrugging off a potential hit to fuel demand from the omicron variant. The moves also came even after China recently agreed with the US to release crude oil from its strategic stockpiles around the Lunar New Year, in a bid by major consumers to lower oil prices. Analysts see strong demand recovery to continue to support crude prices looking ahead, but caution that higher oil prices will also raise the risk of political intervention. Strong gains over the last four weeks have now brought WTI crude futures within a hair’s breadth from a 7-year high of $85.41 per barrel hit on Oct. 25 of last year."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: Oil Price technical analysis - Jan 17

Postby sundance » Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:07 pm

With the fog beginning to clear for more and more Wall Street types and traders, - as they begin to see the coming oil shortage, why do you think the oil futures market is in significant backwardation?
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Re: Oil Price technical analysis - Jan 17

Postby dan_s » Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:30 pm

"Backwardation" is actually bullish. Higher near-term prices indicate a shortage of supply today. Think of it as wave that will keep rolling forward, pushing each month's futures contract higher until petroleum inventories normalize. It will take months if not years for petroleum inventories to normalize.
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