IEA: Oil Market Report 2/13/2019

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dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

IEA: Oil Market Report 2/13/2019

Post by dan_s »

Read IEA's summary of the monthly report here: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

Highlights:

Our global demand estimate for 2018 is unchanged. Growth in 4Q18 was robust at 1.4 mb/d y-o-y and for 2018 as a whole growth was 1.3 mb/d. China (0.44 mb/d), India (0.21 mb/d) and the US (0.54 mb/d) contributed 1.19 mb/d of the total.

Growth in demand in 2019 is expected to be 1.4 mb/d, unchanged from our last Report. It is supported by lower prices and the start-up of petrochemical projects in China and the US. Slowing economic growth will, however, limit any upside.

Global supply fell 1.4 mb/d to 99.7 mb/d in January as the Vienna Agreement and Alberta's cuts took effect. Our non-OPEC growth estimates have increased to 2.7 mb/d in 2018 and to 1.8 mb/d in 2019. This is mainly due to higher US output.

OPEC crude output was 930 kb/d lower in January at 30.83 mb/d, a near four-year low. Compliance with the Vienna Agreement was 86%, with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait cutting by more than promised. Compliance by non-OPEC participants was only 25%.

In December, global refining throughput fell 0.7 mb/d y-o-y instead of an expected increase due to lower activity in Asia's four largest refiners: China, India, Japan and Korea. Our 2019 forecast is unchanged, with runs expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d.

At end-December, OECD oil company stocks were 5.6 mb below the November level at 2 858 mb, up 4.6 mb compared with end-2017. The major stock build in 2H18 was in non-OECD countries. Government stocks drew in 2018 by 22.1 mb, mainly in the US and Europe.

Brent futures reached a two-month high of $62.75/bbl in early February, with WTI prices around $10/bbl below. The Brent-Dubai EFS narrowed to an eight-year low as sour crude markets tightened. Ample supplies of gasoline saw cracks decline into negative territory.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: IEA: Oil Market Report 2/13/2019

Post by dan_s »

At the link above there is a chart that says "World Oil Demand". It is really a chart of demand for hydrocarbon based liquid refined products, primarily transportation fuels refined from crude oil. It also includes liquids made from NGLs and biofuel.

> The chart only goes through Q3 2018 because that is the limit of IEA's actual data. Actual data is at least three months old and much longer outside the U.S. In fact, outside of the U.S. all of the IEA and EIA data is basically WAGs ("Wild Ass Guesses") based on formulas.

> This summer global demand will exceed 102,000,000 million barrels per day, an amount of energy that most humans cannot comprehend. The oil & gas global market is HUGE and the GROWTH is relentless at 1.5 to 2.0 million barrels per day each year. IEA has a long history of under-estimating demand growth each year.

> Some "experts" say global demand will peak at about 120 million barrels per day around 2030. These "experts" have been wrong for decades, so don't count on it.

> MOST IMPORTANT: Note that demand increases sharply EVERY YEAR from Q1 to Q3. This is because 90% of humans live in the Northern Hemisphere.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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