Where will energy come from in 2040?

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Where will energy come from in 2040?

Post by dan_s »

BP: Renewables and natural gas to dominate energy growth (from the Wall Street Journal)

The vast majority of global energy supply growth is expected to come from renewables and natural gas over the next two decades, but steep investment in oil exploration and production will be needed to meet crude demand in 2040, BP said Thursday.

In its annual energy outlook report, the British oil-and-gas giant outlined as its central scenario a future in which renewable energy sources—including wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and biofuels—and natural gas will together account for 85% of the world’s energy growth in the run up to 2040. As part of the scenario, renewable energy production is projected to grow at a rate of 7.1% a year, with its share in primary energy increasing to 15% by 2040, compared with just 4% today.

Natural gas would grow by 1.7% a year, surpassing coal as the world’s second largest source of global energy and rivaling oil for the top spot by the end of the outlook period. “All of the scenarios suggest that oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy system in 2040,” BP said in the report.
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Does it surprise any of you that renewables are only 4% of this world's energy supply today?

BP's annual report for the last few years has been focused on sucking up to the Millennials and Environmentals Wackos that believe energy should be free. FWIW all wind and solar projects must have gas fired power plants to back them up.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Where will energy come from in 2040?

Post by dan_s »

Cassidy sees opening in 'Green New Deal' debate . E&E News .

Sen. Bill Cassidy is in early talks with Republican senators about assembling a legislative package to counter the "Green New Deal," with an emphasis on policies that encourage the use of natural gas. Faster permitting for pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals as well as tax credits to promote natural gas as a transportation fuel are a few of the items the Louisiana Republican floated as possible components of the effort, which he described as in the "beginning stages." "We want to have a response that creates jobs and uses American energy and lowers emissions," Cassidy told E&E News yesterday. "That's kind of our goal." He declined to identify any of the senators he's spoken with but said he anticipates the effort will be informed by upcoming hearings in the Energy and Natural Resources Committee that will examine climate change. Natural gas, a mainstay of Louisiana's economy and one that emits about half the carbon emissions of coal, will be front and center of the effort, which Cassidy said aims to "lower carbon emissions, but also makes our economy stronger."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Where will energy come from in 2040?

Post by dan_s »

Natural gas is the "Clean Hydrocarbon"

With natural gas on the rise, U.S. market is moving against coal
U.S. coal mines are on the decline: The Energy Information Administration is reporting that the number of active coal mines has fallen to 671 nationwide, from 1,435 in 2008. It's increasingly clear that the market has chosen natural gas over coal as a more affordable, more efficient power source. During the past decade, the primary factor driving the closure of 764 U.S. coal mines — most of them underground — was simply a steady decline in demand. Coal consumption, 82% of which stems from electricity generation in coal-fired power plants, has fallen to its lowest point in four decades. Spurring on the decline is a nationwide retreat by power providers from coal-fired electricity generation, which fell by a near-record 14.3 gigawatts last year. While the coal industry has claimed that regulation is a major driver of coal’s decline, official projections show that U.S. coal production is now expected to fall at a greater rate than it would have under the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan.

Can U.S. gas production keep up with demand?
In its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2019 with projections to 2050, the EIA projects a surge in LNG exports. This expected surge begs the question of whether U.S. natural gas supplies can continue to keep pace. The associated gas (co-produced with oil) in the Permian Basin is beginning to have a large impact on the natural gas market. There is so much gas being produced in the Permian that it has outstripped the pipeline capacity to get that gas to market. New pipelines are being built, but in the interim, there has been significant flaring and even natural gas prices falling below zero at times in the area. Natural gas production in the Permian Basin has reached 13 Bcf/d, which is what the Appalachia Region produced in 2013. That reflects a doubling of production there in just over two years, and is now second only to the Appalachia Region’s 31 Bcf/d. Further, Permian Basin gas production should continue to grow along with the region’s oil. A new assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that there are 281 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas in the Permian. So it looks the Appalachia Region and the Permian Basin will provide sufficient gas to feed the monster LNG demand growth that is forecast over the next decade.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
adamlloyd
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Joined: Sat May 01, 2010 11:11 pm

Re: Where will energy come from in 2040?

Post by adamlloyd »

Dan, I think you are too critical of the BP Energy Outlook report which is widely respected and has a ton of good data. This year, for the first time, they offer several possible scenarios based on government policies, trade disputes, the economies of major oil producers etc. Their baseline scenario, which they call "Evolving Transition", assumes government policies following the recent trend at a similar pace. And by 2040 it predicts total energy consumption increasing around 30% - oil up a bit, NG up a lot, coal down slightly, renewables up a lot. It has 25% of vehicle power consumption as electric, which seems plausible to me. I've only done a quick scan of the report, but I recommend it as valuable weekend reading for anyone investing in energy.
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Where will energy come from in 2040?

Post by dan_s »

It is definitely worth reading.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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