EIA: Weekly Petroleum Report - April 10

[dan_s]

About what was expected. My comments in blue.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending April 5, 2019

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending April 5, 2019, which was 251,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 87.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. < Keep in mind that over the next six weeks refinery inputs, primarily crude oil, will increase to approximately 18.0 million barrels per day. They need to ramp up in Q2 each year to meet the big spike in demand for transportation fuels AND "summer blend" gasoline requires more crude oil.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 164,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million barrels per day, 15.5% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 714,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 98,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 456.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 7.7 million barrels last week and are at the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 19% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 4.1 million barrels last week.
Keep in mind that we consume a lot more of these refined products than we did five years ago. Details will show that on a "Days of Supply" measure we are below the 5-year average.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, down by 0.8% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.4 million barrels per day, up by 1.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 3.1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 0.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.

[dan_s]

Details from the EIA actual report.

Last week's crude oil inputs to refineries was 16.1 million barrels per day. By the end of May, that number needs to increase to ~17.5 million barrels per day in order for refiners to meet the summer demand for transportation fuels.

EIA's summary report (above) reports how inventories compare to the 5-year average. That is misleading because we consume a lot more refined products than we did 5 years ago. Looking at days of supply reveals a much tighter market. Remember, this nation's economy is extremely dependent on a steady supply of transportation fuels.
Days of supply (based on current demand):
28.5 days of crude oil
24.5 days of gasoline (in six weeks demand for gasoline will be a lot higher)
24.7 days of jet fuel
30.4 days of distillates