Oil Price in the 2nd quarter

[dan_s]

From April 1 to June 21 the front month NYMEX contract for WTI traded between $65.58 and $52.50. These are daily averages. Inter-day highs and lows weren't counted. Adding up all the highs and lows and dividing by the number of days, I come up with an average price of $57.51 for the quarter. For modeling purposes, I will assume an average WTI price of $57/bbl for Q2, $55/bbl for Q3 and $60/bbl for Q4. I will assume $60/bbl for all of 2020.

For each company's forecast model, I attempt to adjust for regional differentials and for each company's hedges.

I will be updating all of the Sweet 16 forecast models this week.

For the Henry Hub natural gas prices I will be using
$2.50 for Q2 2019
$2.20 for Q3 2019
$2.30 for Q4 2019
$2.50 for 2020
All of the "gassers" have a high percentage of their gas hedged, so it won't make much difference. NGL prices are down because of the glut of propane that I mentioned in Saturday's podcast.

[dan_s]

In case you are wondering, WTI averaged $54.87 in Q1 2019.

[dan_s]

As I finish updating each Sweet 16 company's forecast model, they will be posted to the EPG website. They will show up on the home page. You just need to log on and then scroll down to see them. CLR is up first.