Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 10

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,415 Bcf as of Friday, October 4, 2019, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 98 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 472 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 9 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,424 Bcf.
At 3,415 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

There are six weeks left in the refill season.
Weather looks a bit more bullish for natural gas demand over the next ten days. See: https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/u ... .88,-87.63
I expect storage to be ~50 Bcf above the 5-year average by mid-November, but keep in mind that the 5-year average includes a very low number from last year. There is definitely NOT going to be a glut of gas in storage. Storage is far from full.

As Matt Marshall told us on Wednesday, with a normal winter, increasing LNG exports and more gas going to Mexico via pipeline there s/b about 2.5 Bcf per day more demand than supply than we had last year through Q1 2020. After the winter, the outlook for gas is bearish but not terrible. Good news is that differentials for gas and oil in West Texas should be much smaller going forward.

[dan_s]

The weekly numbers can be misleading, so I watch the 13 week (1/4 of a year) running total. Over the 13 weeks ending October 4, 2019 injections to storage were 145 Bcf (~1.6 Bcfpd) above the 5-year average. Keep in mind that the same 13 weeks a year ago saw injections 115 Bcf below the 5-year average.

There is more gas supply and storage will be where it should be heading into winter, but there is no glut of natural gas.