EIA - Petroleum Status Report - Dec 4

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

EIA - Petroleum Status Report - Dec 4

Post by dan_s »

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 29, 2019 with my comments in blue.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 29, 2019, which was 464,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.9% of their operable capacity last week. < Refiners need to ramp up to 95% of capacity to meet distillate demand.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.3 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, down by 201,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.0 million barrels per day, 21.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 399,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 143,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 447.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week and are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year. < Dangerously low for this time of year. Home heating oil is part of this group.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 4.9 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 1.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.4% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: EIA - Petroleum Status Report - Dec 4

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Technical Analyst: "Since my last analysis and on analysis of the movement of WTI Crude Oil Futures in different time frames I find that the reversal shown by WTI from $55 on November 29, 2019 confirms an advent of a bullish trend ahead. There is no doubt that the WTI Crude Oil futures look ready for an immediate target at $64.71."

See more here: https://www.investing.com/analysis/wti- ... -200489953

MY TAKE: We need two things to happen for WTI to move over $60/bbl
1. OPEC+ agrees to extend their production quota agreement. We should know this by Friday.
2. A "Phase One" trade deal between the U.S. and China. Just an agreement not to increase tariffs anymore than were they are today should be enough.

What will push WTI oil over $70/bbl is confirmation in Q1 that U.S. oil production growth has stopped. MY "SWAG" is that U.S. oil production will peak in December and go on decline in Q1. On the Solaris conference call they said they see a 20% to 30% decline in well completions from Q3 to Q4. Solaris knows this because they have well completion equipment in all of the major oil producing regions.
There is a lag between well drilling, completions and production. At the current active drilling rig count, which I expect will keep going down, there is NO WAY U.S. oil production can keep growing.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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