Oil & Gas Prices - April 28

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dan_s
Posts: 34465
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - April 28

Post by dan_s »

Opening Prices:
> WTI (JUN21) is up 46c to $63.40/Bbl, and Brent is up 38c to $66.80/Bbl.
> Natural gas (MAY21) is up 3.2c to $2.905/MMBtu. The JUN21 contract is trading at $2.968. JUL21 to MAR22 are now all trading over $3.00.

AEGIS Notes
Crude Oil


COVID outbreak threatens Canada Oil Sands production
Twelve oil sand production sites have been listed with outbreaks, just as contractors have begun to fly in for maintenance season
AEGIS notes no production has been knocked offline yet, though maintenance work has been delayed. If COVID infections rise, it could possibly extend the duration of the maintenance work, taking Canadian supply offline

Goldman forecasts Brent oil will hit $80/Bbl in the next six months
The bank says global consumption will surge by 5.2 MMBbl/d over the next six months, which is a 50% larger jump than the next biggest increase over that timeframe (2000)
Overall demand will increase to 99 MMBbl/d in 3Q2021 as vaccination rollout in Europe picks up

EIA weekly data is due at 9:30 am CST. Expectation per Bloomberg Survey:
U.S. Crude Inventories: – 60 MBbls
U.S. Gasoline Inventories: – 53 MBbls
U.S. Distillate Inventories: – 987 MBbls
U.S. Refinery Utilization: + 0.30% change

Natural Gas

Price premiums for Texas Gulf Coast gas are likely to continue due to strong LNG demand and Mexico exports (Platts)
The supply and demand balance in East and South Texas is tightening, according to S&P Platts and promises to change the region into a premium basis market for a while < Good news for CRK, GDP and TALO.
Exports to Mexico are averaging over 6.1 Bcf/d in March – their highest level on record < AEGIS expects exports to Mexico to increase to 7 Bcf/day this summer.
Houston Ship Channel and Katy Hub are trading at premiums to US benchmark Henry Hub
There are over 240+ historical settle and Forward curves available to clients who sign in on the AEGIS Research Tab

A demand boost from late shoulder season cold from the Rockies to the East Coast for the week ended April 23 might lead to a near single-digit injection to be reported tomorrow (S&P)
The average estimate on Bloomberg is calling for a 10 Bcf injection
A 10 Bcf injection would prove bullish compared to the five-year average of 67 Bcf
AEGIS notes that the gas market has trended tighter, and price has responded by rising to $2.92 for the May contract as of Wednesday morning, which represents a gain of 30c over the past two weeks
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34465
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - April 28

Post by dan_s »

OPEC's Market Monitoring Panel: No Changes To Policies Set At Previous Meeting
By Antonio Ferlito Commodities (Apr 28, 2021 06:41AM ET)

OPEC, Russia, and their allies, will stick to plans for a phased easing of oil production restrictions from May to July amid upbeat forecasts for a recovery in global demand and despite surging coronavirus cases in India, Brazil and Japan.

The group known as OPEC+ ditched plans to hold a ministerial meeting on Wednesday, four OPEC+ sources said, following Tuesday's meeting of ministers who are members of a market monitoring panel.

The panel decided to stick to policies broadly agreed at a previous Apr. 1 meeting of OPEC+, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said after the talks.

He said the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting was scheduled for June 1 to review output levels for July and August. An OPEC+ statement also confirmed the June 1 date for the next meeting. In the video at the end of the article we discuss our view on crude oil WTI.

OPEC+, which is responsible for more than a third of global production, has cut output by around 8 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to over 8% of global demand. The reduction includes a 1 million bpd voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia.

At the Apr.1 meeting, the group agreed to bring 2.1 million bpd back to the market from May to July, easing cuts to 5.8 million bpd.

In a report by OPEC+ experts, the group forecast global oil demand in 2021 would grow by 6 million bpd, after falling 9.5 million bpd last year.

But the group said that, even though more than 1 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses had been administered globally, it was concerned that surges in new virus cases in India, Brazil, and Japan might derail recovering demand for crude.

Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday after falling the previous session, with gains capped by growing concern about fuel demand in India, the world's third-biggest crude importer.

The OPEC+ report said it expected commercial oil stocks to reach 2.95 billion barrels in July, taking them below the 2015-2019 average, and expected them to remain below that average for the rest of the year. It said it saw stocks at about 70 million barrels below the average for the whole of 2021, a more optimistic outlook than its previous forecast of 20 million barrels below the average.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34465
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - April 28

Post by dan_s »

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (JUN 21) was up $0.92 on the day, to settle at $63.86/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (MAY 21) was up $0.052 on the day, to settle at $2.925/MMBtu. < JUN21 closed at $2.953.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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