Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 5

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 89c to $79.70/Bbl, and Brent is up 72c to $81.26/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 12.9c to $5.587/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

In an all but unsurprising move, OPEC+ decided to proceed with its planned 400 MBbl/d supply hike despite international pressure from consumers
> Oil prices settled at a four-week low yesterday, despite the modest hike
> Goldman Sachs says that price volatility is likely to rise in the coming weeks as the U.S., India, Japan, and other consumers develop a response to their shunned effort to strong-arm the cartel into producing more oil
> Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz said after the OPEC+ meeting that “oil is not the problem,” citing natural gas shortages, and said, “the problem is the energy complex is going through havoc and hell.” < Thanks in large part to last year's very cold winter that wiped out storage of natural gas and other home heating fuels in Asia and Europe. Plus, Europe moved too quickly to unreliable wind & solar and were too aggressive in shutting down coal and natural gas power generation. The citizens in Europe will suffer thanks to their idiot leaders.

U.S. President Joe Biden is eyeing a potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve release to bring down gasoline prices
> There are currently more than 612 MMBbls in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
> Former U.S. President Obama was the last to release barrels from SPRs and was joined by other countries in the International Energy Agency in response to crude supply disruptions in Libya in 2011
> The U.S. is arguing that OPEC+ is not supplying enough oil to fuel the post-COVID economic recovery
Team Biden is a bunch of idiots that refuse to take any advice from oil & gas industry experts. I urge all of you to watch the G&R video we sent out this morning. The Far Left has us on a path to a significant energy shortage.

Natural Gas

The prompt-month Henry Hub contract is down by around 12.9c, near $5.587 this morning, following yesterday’s inventory report
> The prompt-month gas contract is still on track for a small weekly gain of around 16c
> Weather for the next two weeks remains unchanged, and forecasts have been relatively steady through most of the week

The EIA reported a 63-Bcf injection for the week ending October 29, its eighth consecutive week with a build above the five-year average
> Working gas inventories increased to 3.611 Tcf, 101 Bcf below the five-year average of 3.712 Tcf
> The ICE end-of-season inventory level remains unchanged at 3.665 Tcf
> The deficit to the five-year average has fallen over the last eight weeks from 235 Bcf to 101 Bcf < Keep in mind that (a) we use a lot more gas than we did five years ago and (b) LNG exports will be much higher this winter than they were last winter.
> The S&D balance has weakened significantly over the past several weeks due partly to mild weather < La Nina will bring some very cold weather to Eastern half of U.S. over the next four months.

Freeport LNG feedgas demand is down due to maintenance
Feedgas at the terminal was nearly 1 Bcf lower on November 4 compared to its typical levels as one of its pre-treatment trains will be down for roughly a week after an undefined incident that took place on October 31, which the company says it is investigating

[Fraser921]

They are like a cult. They have this narrative that oil companies are evil. They want to throw people in prison for having a view on climate change that's different from what the cult calls for. Biden shuts down a 10 b pipeline first 10 minutes in office then wonders why prices went up.

The idiots that run the country couldn't run a lemonade stand.

[dan_s]

“Abraham Lincoln talked about a government of the people, by the people, for the people. What we now have is a government of the people, by the bureaucrats, for the bureaucrats.” - These are the words of 1976 Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman from his classic Why Government Is the Problem.

[dan_s]

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (DEC 21) was up $2.46 on the day, to settle at $81.27/Bbl.
> In contrast, NG prompt month (DEC 21) was down $0.200 on the day, to settle at $5.516/MMBtu.

Keep an eye on the Chicago weather forecast. When overnight lows dip below freezing in Chicago we start getting nice draws from ngas storage.