EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 10

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dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 10

Post by dan_s »

Working gas in storage was 3,618 Bcf as of Friday, November 5, 2021, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 7 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 308 Bcf less than last year at this time and 119 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,737 Bcf.
At 3,618 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Based on the 10-day weather forecast for the U.S. ( https://weather.com/maps/tendayforecast ), my SWAG is that we will see one more small build for the week ending November 12 and then draws from storage will begin. The last two weeks of November should be larger draws than the 5-year average.

La Nina will cause big dips in the northern Jet Stream this winter. When the dips run down the east side of the Rockies that's when we can get record cold waves. It will just take one in December to send natural gas prices a lot higher.

Here is a preview of what's coming this winter:
https://weather.com/news/weather/video/ ... =hp-slot-4

The front month NYMEX contract DEC21 has pulled back because European natural gas prices are back into the mid-$20s. There is still a HUGE profit margin on LNG shipments to Europe and Asia. Nothing has really changed. LNG exports aren't going down when there is more than a $10/mcf profit margin on natural gas shipments. BTW La Nina is also going to send a few Polar Vortexes into Europe this winter.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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