Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 16

[dan_s]

The View From Puerto Vallarta

Opining Prices:
> WTI is up 47c to $81.35/Bbl, and Brent is up 58c to $82.63/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 17.1c to $5.188/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes

West Texas Intermediate traded above $81/Bbl Tuesday morning as the possibility of government action, and a rising dollar has arrested further price increases
Headlines are still centered around whether Biden will tap the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve
OPEC said the global oil market would switch from being under- to over-supplied as early as next month as the economic rebound falters (BBG)

Oil production in the Permian Basin is expected to hit a record in December, according to a U.S. government report Monday
Output from West Texas and New Mexico are set to increase to 4.95 MMBbl/d next month, surpassing the record set in March 2020

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) says the end of the oil price rally is in sight as production recovers
In its monthly report, the IEA left oil demand growth estimates little changed for 2021 and 2022
Demand growth remains robust, but supply is catching up, and changes in oil stockpiles seen in October suggest “the tide might be turning,” according to the IEA’s report
“Production in the U.S. is ramping up in tandem with stronger oil prices.”
The IEA boosted forecasts for U.S. production in the fourth quarter by 300 MBbl/d and for next year by 200 MBbl/d. U.S. output will climb by 1.1 MMBbl/d in 2022 < Pure Guess, They have no idea

Natural Gas

The prompt-month (Dec ’21) Henry Hub contract is up by 17.1c this morning, near $5.188
The prompt contract is up by 38c this week after settling at a recent low of $4.79 on Friday, November 12
Weather forecasts for next week tilted cooler, with the November gas-weighted heating degree day total increasing by 8.2 to 545 HDDs
U.S. dry gas production is down by 1.9 Bcf/d this morning at 91
Bcf/d. Production receipts in the Marcellus/Utica region measured 1.1 Bcf/d lower this morning, while Gulf of Mexico output fell by 0.48 Bcf/d
Feedgas demand at U.S. LNG facilities is back up to 10.9 Bcf/d as Freeport LNG increased volumes by 0.57 Bcf/d

European gas prices jump as Nord Stream 2 faces another delay
German energy market regulators said in a statement that it could not certify Nord Stream 2 as an independent operator because the company was based in Switzerland and not Germany
Leading industry experts are already warning of the risk of shortages this winter, and rolling blackouts in the event of a cold winter