Eia forecast

[Fraser921]

We estimate world crude oil consumption exceeded crude oil production for five consecutive quarters, starting in the third quarter of 2020. During this period, petroleum inventories in OECD countries (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) fell by 424 million barrels, or 13%. We forecast global crude oil demand will exceed global supply through the end of the year, contribute to some additional inventory draws, and keep the Brent crude oil price above $80 per barrel (b) through December 2021.
However, we forecast that global oil inventories will begin building in 2022, driven by rising production from OPEC+ countries and the United States and slowing growth in global oil demand. We expect this shift will put downward pressure on the Brent price, which will average $72/b during 2022.
Spot prices of Brent, an international crude oil benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a U.S. crude oil benchmark, have risen since their April 2020 lows and are now above pre-pandemic levels. In October, the price of Brent crude oil averaged $84/b, and the price of WTI averaged $81/b, the highest nominal prices since October 2014. We expect that the price of Brent will fall from an average of $84/b in October 2021 to $66/b in December 2022 and the price of WTI will fall from an average of $81/b in October 2021 to $62/b in December 2022.

October 2021 averaged was over $81 , they are calling for 62 next year WOW

FWIW, they were calling for $45 this year (last December) which they missed by a country mile. No wonder the ep guys hedged at 45. They believed them. I personally don’t see opec pumping so much oil they drive the price down $ 20 bucks
I guess the wild card is Iran oil supply if Biden goes easy on them

[dan_s]

This is just a WAG from EIA. OPEC+ will be out of capacity to add supply within 6 to 9 month. My WAG is 6. US and other non-OPEC+ production will grow slowly and in 6 months demand will rise quickly like it does every year. Demand for oil is seasonal.