Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 19

Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 19

Postby dan_s » Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:27 am

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $2.40 to $76.61/Bbl, and Brent is down $2.27 to $78.97/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 4.3c to $4.945/MMBtu.

Brent futures slid below $79/Bbl Friday morning and are heading for a fourth straight weekly decline
A sharp rise in Covid cases throughout Europe is renewing the prospect for lockdowns
Austria has already instituted new restrictions, and Germany said it couldn’t rule out a lockdown (Bloomberg)

President Biden’s threat to tap the U.S. SPR and even coordinate with other nations to do the same has already had an immediate effect on the price, despite no real action
Goldman Sachs estimates that the U.S. may release about half of the 50-60 MMBbl anticipated, although that volume may provide only short-term relief (BBG)
WTI’s premium to Middle Eastern Dubai crude has narrowed on a potential SPR release. The WTI-Dubai oil spread is now at $1.40/Bbl, versus $3/Bbl only two weeks ago

OPEC+ spare capacity may be used up in the next 12 months if demand returns to 2019 levels, according to Vortexa analyst David Wech
“At best,” current spare capacity is 3 MMBbl/d with as much as 2 MMBbl/d in Saudi Arabia and the rest in Russia and the UAE
AEGIS notes that two African nations have had trouble producing to their allotted quota, and this is likely to continue

The prompt-month (Dec ’21) Henry Hub contract is up by 4.3c this morning, near $4.945
The contract is up by about 18.4c, or 3.84% on the week
LNG feedgas demand ticked even higher to rise to 12 Bcf/d for the first time, setting a new record-high for the second consecutive day
Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility has continued to hit new all-time highs as feedgas gets introduced to train 6
Lower-48 dry gas production rose 0.2 Bcf/d higher to around 93 Bcf/d, paring losses from early in the week to return to last weekend’s levels

The EIA reported a 26-Bcf injection for the week ending November 12
The stat fell within the expected range of 19 to 33 Bcf (Bloomberg)
The injection is expected to be the last of the season, though they may persist on the regional level
The deficit to the five-year average narrowed from 119 Bcf to 81 Bcf
AEGIS notes that when adjusting for weather the stat implied a tighter market for the second consecutive week
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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