EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 24

EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 24

Postby dan_s » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:19 pm

The Winter Heating Season Begins:
Working gas in storage was 3,623 Bcf as of Friday, November 19, 2021, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 21 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 320 Bcf less than last year at this time and 58 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,681 Bcf.
At 3,623 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Keep this in mind
> Last winter started with much more gas in storage and much lower LNG exports AND THE WINTER ENDED WITH STORAGE BELOW THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE.
> The US consumes a lot more gas than it did five years ago. Demand for power generation and industrial demand is up year-over-year.
> Due the global shortage of space heating fuels, exports of US gas will remain near export capacity at least thru the winter. Even Team Biden knows that we cannot cut off LNG exports to Europe, Japan or Korea because it would crush the global economy.
> Mother Nature (using La Nina #2) is going to show the Wackos that she's not buying their global warming BS. The polar bears are safe for another year.
> My guess is that HH gas will average over $5/MMBtu from Dec to Mar and we are one Polar Vortex away from a big price spike.
> Only a very mild winter will push HH gas under $4 in 2022

We will be posting an updated profile for Coterra Energy (CTRA) to the EPG website this afternoon. It is a large-cap gasser that has a lot of unhedged gas and NGLs.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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