Last week’s decision by six oil-consuming countries to release crude from their strategic stockpiles was headline-grabbing but ultimately irrelevant. It is still premature to say much about the worrisome new COVID variant that emerged in southern Africa, but needless to say, we will be watching its impact on oil demand. In the meantime, the Iranian nuclear issue represents a major factor vis-a-vis global oil market fundamentals for years to come. As the latest in a complex series of twists and turns, nuclear negotiations between Iran and major powers are resuming this week following a hiatus since Iran’s presidential election in June.
At stake is the full return of Iranian crude exports – approximately 1.5 million bpd above the current run-rate – onto the global market, provided that Trump-era U.S. secondary sanctions end up being lifted by the Biden administration. If all of this sounds familiar, that's because it is close to a repeat of what had happened in 2015 – close, but not quite. A key difference versus 2015 is the fact that Iran is led by a hardline president, which heightens the uncertainty surrounding the new talks – as well as the longer-term outlook for Iran’s oil industry, separate and distinct from the sanctions question. While it seems likely that Iranian production will continue to rebound from the Trump-era trough, both timing and magnitude are far from clear-cut.
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IMO Team Biden has done a lot of stupid things, but allowing Iran to get weapons grade uranium will trump them all.
Note from Raymond James - Nov 29
Note from Raymond James - Nov 29
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Note from Raymond James - Nov 29
"will trump them all"
The only thing that drives these TDS infected humans is to reverse all decisions made by the prior president , good, bad , or indifferent.
I agree, Iran with a nuke, is downright scary.
The only thing that drives these TDS infected humans is to reverse all decisions made by the prior president , good, bad , or indifferent.
I agree, Iran with a nuke, is downright scary.