Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 30

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dan_s
Posts: 34465
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 30

Post by dan_s »

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $2.77 to $67.18/Bbl, and Brent is down $2.69 to $70.75/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 27.1c to $4.583/MMBtu.

FEAR will be in control of the oil price for awhile longer.

AEGIS Notes
Oil


Oil futures continued their retreat as uncertainty surrounding the new omicron variant had traders worried about the impact on oil demand
West Texas Intermediate is headed for the biggest monthly loss since the early days of the pandemic
Moderna CEO Stephanie Bancel said the world may now need new vaccines as current shots won’t provide the same level of protection against omicron as they do against delta, according to an interview with the Financial Times

Talks between Iran and other world powers to restart the 2015 nuclear deal began Monday positively, according to a top European diplomat (BBG)
Tehran is showing it’s ready to engage in “serious work” over the coming weeks to reach an agreement, the diplomat said
A long hard road remains with U.S. officials increasingly pessimistic of their chances of striking an accord with Iran’s new hardline government, according to Bloomberg

A key Middle East crude grade collapsed on Monday in a warning sign only two days before the OPEC+ meeting on supply (Bloomberg)
Oman crude of January loading fell to a premium of only 60c/Bbl over the regional benchmark on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange. That’s down from $2.20 on Friday and $3/Bbl before that
The plunge is likely to catch the attention of OPEC+, which will decide output levels for January on December 1
There are signs of a weakening supply and demand in the region as multiple oil cargoes are unsold and still available, according to traders

Natural Gas


The prompt-month (Jan ’22) gas contract is down by 27.1c this morning, near $4.583
> Yesterday, gas prices fell off a cliff, with the Jan ’22 contract losing 62.3c to finish at $4.854
> The sell-off extended beyond just the winter 21/22 strip, as the summer 22 and winter 22/23 posted losses of 18.3c and 14.3c. The Cal ’22 strip lost 27.4c in total
> According to Criterion Research, production is down by around 1.2 Bcf/d this morning, with drops spread across every region. Lower-48 dry gas production is now back below 95 Bcf/d
> Weather models continued to deteriorate, as the gas-weighted heating degree day total fell by another 5 HDDs
> LNG feedgas demand is down by 0.16 Bcf/d, despite the return in flows to Freeport LNG. The drops can be attributed to maintenance at two different compressor stations at Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG sites. The maintenance will likely conclude on December 1, so the reduced flows should be short-lived
> The March-April spread narrowed to 41.2c, down from a high of $1.90 on October 6, as fears of a supply crunch have dissipated

European gas prices continue to surge as all eyes turn to Russia
> Day-ahead auctions for space on Ukrainian pipeline and capacity at Germany’s Mallnow compressor station should signal whether Russia is serious about increasing flows to the west. So far, it hasn’t used short-term auctions to ship more fuel
> European gas storage is depleting quickly, with inventory levels at 70%, compared to the 10-year average of 85% for this time of year
The prompt TTF contract gained $1.739, or 6%, to settle at $30.854
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34465
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 30

Post by dan_s »

At today's EPG luncheon I will be making a presentation on why I believe that when the FEAR level fades (which it will), the price of oil will go over $100 by next summer.

We still have seats available if you'd like to attend.

Where?
Fratelli's Ristorante
1330 Wirt Rd < ~1 mile north of Hwy 10
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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