EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Dec 1

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Dec 1

Post by dan_s »

U.S. crude oil inventories are below the bottom of the 5-year range for this time of year. Refiners need to ramp up production of home heating fuel. Note that all refined product inventories and natural gas inventories are below the 5-year average for this time of year.
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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 26, 2021 My comments are in blue.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending November 26, 2021 which was 9,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.8% of their operable capacity last week. < Needs to go over 90%.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, up by 168,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.3 million barrels per day, 18.5% more than the same four-week period last year. < U.S. is very dependent on a steady flow of imported oil.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 643,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 234,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 433.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.0 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year. < Over the next few weeks demand for home heating oil will increase as those who heat their homes with oil are filling up their tanks.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are about 14% below the five year average for this time of year. < Propane rationing is already happening and propane price may go over oil prices if we have a cold winter.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 4.3 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels a day, up by 7.1% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels a day, up by 10.6% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.3 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 6.1% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 34.5% compared with the same four week period last year.
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Conclusion: Through November 26 demand for oil-based products remains HIGH and all inventories remain LOW. My WAG is that the new Covad Variant will have much less impact on demand than is currently being priced into crude oil. Travel restrictions will not reduce demand for home heating oil or distillates. A lot of diesel will be needed to resolve supply chain issues. Travel restriction have no impact on natural gas demand.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Dec 1

Post by dan_s »

Keep in mind that the holidays do have an impact on the weekly storage report numbers.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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