Ranger Oil Corp (ROCC) Update - Dec 6

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dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Ranger Oil Corp (ROCC) Update - Dec 6

Post by dan_s »

I will update my forecast/valuation model for Ranger and will post it to the EPG website this afternoon.

Ranger Oil Increases Oil Sales Guidance for Fourth Quarter 2021

HOUSTON, Dec. 06, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ranger Oil Corporation ("Ranger" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: ROCC) today announced an increase in the Company’s oil sales guidance for the fourth quarter 2021 and updated its current hedge position.

Darrin Henke, President and Chief Executive Officer of Ranger commented, “I am very pleased to announce that, due to the observed outperformance of existing wells, faster cycle times and less anticipated downtime, we now expect our fourth quarter sales volumes to be considerably higher than initially anticipated. As a result, we are positively revising as well as narrowing our guidance of anticipated sales volumes for the fourth quarter from a range of 25,700 - 27,700 barrels of oil per day (“bbl/d”), to a range of 26,700 - 28,000 bbl/d.”

“Several factors are contributing to this outperformance, all of which we expect to continue in the future to drive best in class returns for our shareholders. First, our unwavering focus on increasing operating efficiencies resulted in decreased drilling and completion cycle times and accelerated turn-in-line dates for the quarter. In addition, of the wells recently turned-in-line, we continue to see initial outperformance relative to our forecasts as we optimize our completion and production designs, revealing the inherent quality of our acreage position. Third, we have seen very favorable initial results of our Lonestar integration efforts, resulting in the application of best practices on newly producing wells, such as deploying jet pumps for artificial lift. Lastly, the previously announced field infrastructure upgrades have largely been completed and at a faster pace than anticipated, resulting in less anticipated downtime, while also contributing to positive well performance.”

“Given the continued operating efficiencies driving the revised guidance, the Company does not anticipate a change to its previously disclosed capital expenditure guidance of between $65 million and $75 million for the quarter.”

Updated Hedge Position

Mr. Henke continued, “The use of commodity hedging is an integral part of the Company’s risk management strategy. Given the attractiveness of recent markets, we continued to lean forward on our hedge strategy, resetting the acquired Lonestar hedges to at the market swaps upon closing in early October, as well as proactively placing additional hedge collars prior to the recent pull back in prices. Our collar levels placed quarter to date for the first half of 2022 have an average of approximately $63 per barrel downside protection, with an average upside exposure of $87 per barrel.”

For Ranger’s updated commodity hedge positions, please visit the presentation section of Ranger’s website at www.Rangeroil.com.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Ranger Oil Corp (ROCC) Update - Dec 6

Post by dan_s »

My valuation of ROCC increases to $54. At the time of this post, ROCC is trading for $30.10.

A high percentage of the Company's oil is hedged, so recent oil & gas price changes have very little impact on my valuation.
My valuation is 5X (2021 CFPS + 2022 CFPS)/2. < If their 2022 guidance confirms my model assumptions, a valuation multiple of 6X will be more reasonable.

ROCC was created on 10-1-2022 by the merger of LONE into PVAC. It is a pure play on the Eagle Ford play in South Texas and most of their revenues come from oil sales.

TipRanks:
> On 10/18/2021 Scott Hanold at RBC Capital rated ROCC a BUY with a price target of $44.00
> On 11/5/2021 Neal Dingmann at Truist Financial rated ROCC a BUY with a price target of $47.00
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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