MPLX LP Q4 Results

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dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

MPLX LP Q4 Results

Post by dan_s »

Q4 results came in below my forecast, but 2018 was a very good year. DCF coverage is more than enough for them to keep increasing distributions quarter-after-quarter. Their goal is to increase distribution by AT LEAST $0.01 each quarter in 2019. Full-year distributions should be $2.70/unit in 2019. I have posted my updated forecast/valuation model for MPLX to the EPG website, but I need to spend more time with their 10K to break out some details. My valuation will end up in the $40 to $42 range. - Dan

FINDLAY, Ohio, Feb. 7, 2019 /PRNewswire/ --

Reported record full-year net income of $1.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, an increase of $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, compared to 2017
$2.8 billion in net cash provided by operating activities supported the return of nearly $2.1 billion to unitholders
Maintained capital discipline and improved financial profile by increasing distribution coverage to 1.36x while keeping leverage below 4.0x
MPLX LP (MPLX) today reported fourth quarter 2018 net income attributable to MPLX of $434 million and full-year 2018 net income attributable to MPLX of $1.8 billion, compared with $238 million and $0.8 billion for the fourth quarter and full year 2017, respectively, which was an increase of $1.0 billion on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was $3.5 billion for the full year, which was nearly $1.5 billion higher than 2017. The increase was driven by dropdowns in the L&S segment and strong base business performance across both segments.

"2018 was a transformational year for MPLX," said Gary R. Heminger, chairman and chief executive officer. "Our team executed on the strategic vision outlined at the beginning of the year by significantly growing the business, enhancing the stability of the cash flow profile, and simplifying our financial structure.

"Looking forward, we continue to focus on increasing our presence throughout the midstream value chain as well as developing assets that generate third-party revenue. We announced a number of compelling new projects, including anticipated investments in multiple long-haul pipelines and export facilities that we expect to deliver long-term attractive returns for our shareholders and position the company for success in 2019 and beyond."

For the year, the company generated $2.8 billion in net cash provided by operating activities and distributable cash flow of $2.8 billion, returning $2.1 billion to unitholders. Consistent with its self-funding strategy, the company did not issue any public equity in 2018 and ended the year with leverage of 3.9x.
Last edited by dan_s on Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: MPLX LP Q4 Results

Post by dan_s »

2019 and 2020 Financial Outlook

In December 2018, MPLX provided its 2019 and 2020 capital investment plans. This strategic deployment of capital combined with growth in the underlying base business is expected to generate $2.2 billion and $2.5 billion of net income in 2019 and 2020, and $3.9 billion and $4.4 billion of annual adjusted EBITDA, respectively.

Key new project announcements include Permian long-haul crude oil, natural gas and NGL pipelines and export facilities which would enhance the full value chain capture in the L&S segment. The company also expects to add approximately 800 million cubic feet per day of processing capacity and 100,000 barrels per day of fractionation capacity in 2019 to the G&P segment.

The partnership plans to fund approximately 50% of its organic growth capital plan with cash from operating activities, while maintaining strong coverage and an investment grade credit profile. MPLX does not anticipate the need to issue public equity in 2019 or 2020 to fund its organic growth capital.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: MPLX LP Q4 Results

Post by dan_s »

Justin Jenkins at Raymond James sent a new report on MPLX to Reuters. He rates it a BUY with a price target of $42.00.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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