Antero Midstream (AM) Update - Feb 8

[dan_s]

Antero Midstream Corp. (AM) is trading at $8.15 at the time of this post.
It is taxed as a C-Corp.
Quarterly dividends are $0.3075 ($1.23/year) for annual yield of ~15.1%

Based on my updated forecast, 2021 DCF coverage should be 1.2 to 1.3 X based on the current dividend.
In a post-pandemic world, AM should get back to their goal of raising dividends by 10% per year.

Over 95% of AM revenues are generated by services that they provide to Antero Resources (AR), one of the four gassers in our Sweet 16.
AR is in MUCH BETTER shape than they were a year ago, which is the primary reason that my valuation of AM increased to $10.00.

Only two of the analysts that cover AM have updated their models and price targets for AM since November and they both rate it a HOLD.
I expect AM's Q4 results to beat the current First Call EPS and operating CFPS forecasts, so I expect analysts upgrades to approach or exceed my valuation by the end of February.
AM will release Q4 results on Feb 17.