Matador Resources (MTDR) Update - Sept 22

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dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Matador Resources (MTDR) Update - Sept 22

Post by dan_s »

I have finished updating all of the Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio individual company forecast/valuation models, raising the forecast assumptions for higher natural gas and NGL prices. You can view them on the EPG website or download them to Excel. I am now updating the Small-Cap Grow Portfolio models.

We will be publishing a new profile on Matador Resources (MTDR) tomorrow morning.

MTDR is trading at $32.49. My valuation increases by $1 to $45. There is upside because Matador only uses collars to hedge their natural gas and none of their NGLs are hedged. They report ngas and ngls on a combined basis, making it difficult to know what price to use in my forecast for future periods since I don't know how much is ngls. Their realized combined gas prices were $5.89/mcfe in Q1 and $4.46/mcfe in Q2. With NGL prices heading a lot higher, my forecast assumptions are probably too low.

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 7 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for MTDR. The average price target among the analysts is $41.57." The seven price targets range from $37 to $50.

If Matador's Q3 results exceed my forecast, there is a good chance it gets moved back into the Sweet 16. The share price is up more than 160% year-to-date and it could be a double from here.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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