Updated valuations for our Small-Cap Portfolio - Sept 23

[dan_s]

I have updated all of the stock valuations for higher natural gas and NGL prices. I always adjust for regional price differentials (which have improved) and for each companies' hedges to come up with their "realized prices" for all commodities sold during the quarters.

Price Deck used for my upstream models:
WTI oil prices per bbl now being used: $70 for Q3, $75 for Q4 and $70 for 2022.
HH natural gas prices per MMBtu now being used: $3.90 for Q3, $4.75 for Q4 and $3.50 for 2022.
NGLs very difficult to forecast, but they are definitely going to be a lot higher this winter. Very few companies hedge their NGLs.

Company, Stock Symbol, Current Price, My Valuation

Ero Copper, ERO, $17.56, $28.00 < New addition. Canadian based mining company that is very profitable. Watch our August 26 webinar.

Goodrich Petroleum, GDP, $21.50, $38.00 < Pure gasser focused on the Haynesville Shale. Q4 and Q1 results will be VERY STRONG.

Hemisphere Energy, HMENF, $0.67, $1.95 < Canadian Junior producing 100% heavy oil that should soon be debt free. Polymer Flood should add significant production growth in 2022 and 2023.

InPlay Oil, IPOOF, $1.08, $2.50 < Canadian Junior that is completing some great wells this year. Light oil + Duvenay Shale upside. They are coming to Houston to host a luncheon for us in October.

Magnolia Oil & Gas, MGY, $16.99, $21.00 < South Texas Eagle Ford that does not hedge their production.

Matador Resources, MTDR, $33.73, $45.00 < Permian Basin company with solid growth. Read the profile we sent out this morning.

Northern Oil & Gas, NOG, $18.55, $34.00 < Non-operating company with very good production mix.

Penn Virginia, PVAC, $22.91, $40.00 < Merger with Lonestar in October sets up a nice step change for this well funded Eagle Ford company.

Ring Energy, REI, $2.59, $5.00 < Permian Basin / Central Basin Platform company that is ramping up their D&C program.

SilverBow Resources, SBOW, $21.93, $50.00 < An Eagle Ford that is getting a big revenue boost from higher natural gas and NGL prices.

Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, SOI, $7.45, $11.00 < An oilfield services company that has gained market share. Debt free. Pays a nice dividend and should be a big winner for us in 2022 when I expect upstream companies to ramp up their drilling programs.
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You can find updated forecast/valuation models for these companies on the EPG website under the Small-Cap tab. We've recently published profiles on most of them.