Magnolia (mgy)

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Fraser921
Posts: 3012
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Magnolia (mgy)

Post by Fraser921 »

Insider selling 7.5 m shares

Mgy will buy 3.0 m of them, approx 50 m

Caused a little after hour weakness but I view it as extremely bullish!

MGY gas 237 m shares outstanding. On the last earnings call they stated they have a goal of buying 1 % of shares outstanding per qtr. So that would imply of a buyback of 2.4 m shares per qtr, 4.8 m for H2 , 2021.

Today announcement is 3.0 m at whatever price the underwriter gets for the other 4 m
Suppose its a 5 % haircut from 17-.85 cents is 16.15. Dan's price target is $ 21

Dans comments > Magnolia Oil & Gas, MGY, $16.99, $21.00 < South Texas Eagle Ford that does not hedge their production.
dan_s
Posts: 34633
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Magnolia (mgy)

Post by dan_s »

Make the Most of Soaring Natural Gas Prices with These 5 Plays
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-soa ... 05304.html
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Fraser921
Posts: 3012
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Magnolia (mgy)

Post by Fraser921 »

Looks like 16.38 * 3. 0 m shares = 49. m

Good buy for MGY.

The weighted avg price was 16.51

I bought some near the low of the day, tyvm
Last edited by Fraser921 on Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Fraser921
Posts: 3012
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Magnolia (mgy)

Post by Fraser921 »

Dan

Did you write that article, lol

Range Resources Corp. RRC

Based in Fort Worth, TX, Range Resources is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of oil and gas properties, primarily in the Appalachian Basin and North Louisiana. It is among the top 10 natural gas producers in the U.S. and is among the top NGL producers in the domestic market.

The Appalachian Basin incorporates prolific acreages in Marcellus, Utica and Upper Devonian shale formations. In the Marcellus formation of the basin, it has a multi-decade inventory of premium drilling locations.

Of the 3,100 undrilled wells in the region, 2,600 wells are liquids-rich and the rest have a natural gas predominance. Following the merger with Memorial Resource Development Corporation a few years back, Range Resources created a core acreage position in North Louisiana comprising 140,000 net acers with multiple formations of productive oil and natural gas.

The company primarily sells its produced natural gas to midstream firms, utilities, marketing companies and industrial users. It also sells natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil.

As of Dec 31, 2020, total proved reserves were 17.2 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe), almost flat year over year. Around 95% of the company’s total proved reserves are located in the Marcellus region. Of the total proved reserves, roughly 57% was developed.

Despite its considerable liquid resources, the company has been focusing on natural gas production because of growing global demand for clean energy. In 2020, its total production averaged 2.23 million cubic feet equivalent per day, of which 69.4% was natural gas. A similar trend is seen this year.

Range Resources’ revenue is expected to grow 38.9% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022. Earnings are expected to increase 2000% and 45.5%, respectively in the two years. Estimates for both years have been rising steadily: the 2021 estimate increased 47.4% in the last 90 days while the 2022 estimate increased 93.0%.

The shares carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). At 8.7X P/E, they’re trading below their median level over the past year, making them really cheap at these levels.

Continental Resources, Inc. CLR

Oklahoma City, OK-based Continental Resources is an explorer and producer of oil and natural gas. The company operates premium resources in the North Dakota Bakken and Montana Bakken (among the country’s largest onshore oilfields) in northern U.S., the SCOOP and STACK plays of Oklahoma in southern U.S. and undeveloped leasehold acreage in eastern U.S. It also has strategic water assets in Bakken and Oklahoma.

Given its presence in prolific regions, the company expects oil equivalent production growth of 8-10% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 which is expected to translate to average annual free cash flow of $3.5-$4 billion over the five-year period.

At the end of 2020, the company’s estimated proved reserves were 1,103.8 MMBoe. During 2020, the company produced 300,090 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), lower than 340,395 Boe/d in the year-ago quarter. Of the total production, oil accounted for nearly 58.2%.

The company’s 2021 revenue and earnings are currently expected to grow 101.9% and 436.8%, respectively. While analysts still expect 2022 growth to be negative, estimates for both years continue to increase substantially (from $2.35 to $3.94 in 2021 and from $1.97 to $3.68 in 2022). The stronger pricing this year is clearly driving the numbers.

The shares of this Zacks Rank #1 company are currently trading at a P/S of 2.99X, which is between their median and high values over the past year, although much lower than the S&P 500. While not cheap, they can’t be considered expensive either.

Goodrich Petroleum Corp. GDP

Houston, Texas-based Goodrich Petroleum is an exploration and production company. It primarily holds interests in the Haynesville Shale Trend in northwest Louisiana and East Texas; Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend located in southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana; and the Eagle Ford Shale Trend in South Texas. The company owns interests in 189 producing oil and natural gas wells located in 37 fields in six states of the United States.

As of December 31, 2020, it had estimated proved reserves of approximately 543 billion cubic feet equivalent, which included 540 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 0.5 million barrels of crude oil or other liquid hydrocarbons of oil and condensate.

The company’s revenues are expected to grow 60.5% this year and another 22.4% in the next. Its earnings are expected to grow 1676.2% this year followed by 25.3% growth in the next. Estimates for both years are galloping ahead. In the past 90 days, they’ve gone from $2.17 to 3.73 for 2021 and from 2.74 to 4.67 for 2022.

Shares of this Zacks Rank #1 stock currently trade at 4.9X P/E, which is below their median level over the past year, and of course much lower than the S&P. They’re a steal at these levels.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. MGY

Magnolia Oil & Gas is an independent upstream operator engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. Headquartered in Houston, TX, the firm is focused on the high-quality Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas.

In South Texas, Magnolia’s position consists of more than 460,000 net acres, of which around 23,500 net acres are located in the highly productive Karnes County and nearly 440,000 net acres in the re-emerging Giddings Field.

At Dec 31, 2020, Magnolia's total estimated proved reserves were 49.3 million barrels ((MMBbls) of oil, 28.5 MMBbls of natural gas liquids (“NGL”) and 207.6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, totaling 112.3 million barrels of oil-equivalent (MMboe) — 69% liquids, 76% developed.

The company focuses on growth through a combination of acquisitions and active drilling. Since its inception in 2018, Magnolia has spent around 60% of operating cash flow on capital expenditures, 26% on acquisitions, 8% on stock buybacks, while preserving the remaining 6% as cash. In particular, Magnolia is focused on returning significant cash to its shareholders: it aims to repurchase 1% of its total scrips outstanding each quarter and introduce a semi-annual cash dividend in 2021.

Given the COVID-related disruption in 2020, it’s understandable that revenue and earnings are expected to jump 88.7% and 10050% this year. But the 6.7% revenue growth and flattish earnings slated for the following year are particularly encouraging.
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