Matador Resources (MTDR) Update - Oct 21

[dan_s]

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for MTDR and posted it to the EPG website. Their operations update didn't provide much new information, but by increasing the combined natural gas and NGL prices used for 2H 2021 and 2022 my valuation increased $1 to $46. MTDR is trading at $44.43.

Matador does have a habit of under-estimating their production, so it their Q3 results and updated guidance tops my forecast, my valuation might go over $50.

[dan_s]

Stifel's take

Matador Resources Company (MTDR, $44.73, Buy; Target $55.00)
Adjusting Estimates Following Ops Update - Michael S. Scialla
On Wednesday (10/20/21), MTDR released an operational updated indicating that it added a fifth rig in August 2021 to drill a SWD well in the Greater Stebbins area and elected to keep the rig for six months to drill 9 new wells on the Rodney Robinson tract. Notably, 2021 capex guidance remained unchanged although we are lowering/raising our 3Q21/4Q21 estimates 13%/14%. We are also raising our 2022 capex/production estimates 5%/3%, which are 1%/2% above consensus. We note that MTDR has not issued 2022 guidance.

[dan_s]

Neal Dingmann at Truist Financial

Matador Resources Company (MTDR, $42.98, Buy) - Spending
Less For More to Boost Shareholder Returns - MTDR released a
positive ops update, lowering 3Q and raising 4Q CAPEX resulting
in no change to FY21 spending though operational efficiencies
allowed for nine wells to be drilled and completed before an
environmental restriction would have delayed operations.
We expect savings similar to the ones announced today will
accelerate MTDR’s ability to reduce leverage which could
lead to notable shareholder returns earlier than expected. We
have adjusted our estimates for the updated capital plan and
accelerated completions, which increases our PT to $55 from
$54.