Texas Covid cases overstated - Sept 16

[dan_s]

From the Houston Chronicle

As public schools were making plans to reopen in August, errors in the state’s calculations made the COVID-19 outbreak in Texas appear larger than it was, according to new state data released Monday.

On Aug. 11, when the state reported that the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus peaked at 24.5 percent, the actual rate was 12.5 percent. The metric fluctuated greatly that month as the state identified and began to work through 800,000 backlogged test results — some dating as far back as March — that state officials had initially missed. They blamed coding mishaps for the oversights.

For most days in August, the positivity rate reported by the state was higher than the actual percent of people testing positive. The updated data — based on a new calculation of the dates that tests were conducted rather than the dates that results were reported by labs to the state — shows a steady downward trend in the positivity rate since July, even as schools have begun reopening.

As of Sept. 13 — a week after Labor Day — the positivity rate stood at 6.71 percent, according to the new data. That is the lowest it has been since the first week of June.

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Abbott has repeatedly touted the positivity rate as a key metric in his reopening decisions, as it should present a current portrait of the pandemic’s spread. He has previously said that a sustained positivity rate below 10 percent could prompt further reopenings statewide, including reopening bars, which have been closed since late June.

The Department of State Health Services on Monday corrected the way it calculated the positivity rate to offer “the most accurate view of the pandemic’s effect over time,” DSHS wrote in a press release announcing the changes. The influx of backlogged test results last month had exposed flaws in the calculation that relied upon the day that tests were reported, since many old positives flooded the system at once.

Both the new and old figures are computed using seven-day averages. The department is still reporting the positivity rate using the old calculation for comparison purposes.

“These enhancements are part of our continuous effort to improve the information we present,” DSHS commissioner John Hellerstedt said in the release. “As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, so must the data we share. Our information must provide the clearest possible picture of what is happening now and what has occurred in the past. The trends in this and other data shape our understanding of what to expect in the future.”

The updated computation also indicates that the state data significantly understated the severity of the outbreak from April to July.