TPLM: Valuation Increased

[dan_s]

Triangle Petroleum (TPLM): An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model has been posted under the Watch List Tab.

I have increased my Fair Value Estimate $0.30/share to $14.00/share.

Triangle's fiscal Q4 production and revenues came in slightly below my forecast, but the outlook for this one is bright. Fiscal Q1 production should be up about 1,000 boepd and revenues from their pressure pumping subsidiary are climbing fast. Year-over-year production growth should exceed 80% this year. Company guidance is for most of their production growth to occur during the 3rd quarter (August - October), primarily because of weather. Their exit rate should be around 13,000 boepd (~83% crude oil).

I expect the oil price differentials in North Dakota to narrow in the months ahead, giving revenues a nice boost. They are also getting a lot of their wells tied into natural gas pipelines, so gas sales are going up.

[dan_s]

We will be sending out an updated profile on TPLM. Read it carefully. This one has a lot of upside.