Oil Prices - Feb 15

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dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil Prices - Feb 15

Post by dan_s »

The U.S. stock market is closed today, but oil is trading.

Oil prices extended strong gains from the prior session on Monday, as investors were hesitant to bet on lower prices amid a renewed possibility of coordinated production cuts.

Global oil prices surged more than 12% on Friday after a report once again suggested OPEC might finally agree to cut production to reduce the world glut.

Nigeria's oil minister, Emmanuel Ibe Kachiwku, said Sunday that the mood inside OPEC is shifting from mistrust to a growing consensus that a decision must be reached on how to end the global oil price rout
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Re: Oil Prices - Feb 15

Post by dan_s »

Oil stages late gains as Saudi, Russia, Venezuela to meet

3.45 ET: LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose nearly 2 percent on Monday on news that ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela would hold a previously unpublicised meeting in Doha this week, adding to speculation of a global output deal.

Benchmark Brent crude gained more than 60 cents in after-hours trading.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak will attend the meeting on Tuesday in what would be the largest producer gathering since OPEC's last formal session in early December, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday.

After settling at $33.39 a barrel earlier in the day, barely changed from Friday, Brent (LCOc1) rose to more than $34 a barrel by 2:30 p.m. EST (1930 GMT). That adds to Friday's 11 percent surge, the biggest one-day jump in over seven years.

U.S. futures (CLc1) gained about 30 cents prior to the close of trade at 1 p.m. EST, hours early due to the Presidents Day holiday. Trading was thin across the board, potentially limiting the impact of the news.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino made no comment on his arrival to the Gulf state of Qatar on Monday, a witness said. Del Pino has been visiting major oil producers to rally support for the idea of "freezing" production at current levels to stem spiraling prices, sources have said.

The meeting is the latest sign of renewed efforts by OPEC members to try to tackle - possibly together with non-OPEC producers - one of the worst oil gluts in history, which has pushed prices to the lowest in more than a decade.

Nigeria's oil minister told Reuters the mood inside OPEC was shifting to a growing consensus that a decision must be reached on propping up prices.

Russia has repeatedly refused to cooperate with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries despite the falling price of oil, but in the last few weeks Moscow has sent mixed signals about the possibility of cooperation.

On Monday, Russia's representative to OPEC said it was in talks on coordinated output cuts with individual OPEC members, mainly Venezuela, but not with the organization itself, news agency Interfax quoted him as saying.

"The fact that the market has reacted so strongly certainly indicates that these comments are being taken seriously," analysts at Frankfurt-based Commerzbank wrote.

However, many analysts, including the International Energy Agency, are still skeptical OPEC will cut a deal with other producers to reign in ballooning output.

"We continue to believe that if prices were to be artificially supported with production cuts it would only give more expensive forms of production more room to breathe and would only solve the problem in the short term," Phillip Futures said in a note. < IMO oil prices will need to move over $50/bbl before there is any impact on capex budgets. - Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil Prices - Feb 15

Post by dan_s »

It will be very interesting to see how the NYMEX traders react to this on Tuesday morning.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
mkarpoff
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Re: Oil Prices - Feb 15

Post by mkarpoff »

Obviously, the market didn't think much about opec and Russia's announcement on holding production to current levels. Your take please.
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil Prices - Feb 15

Post by dan_s »

OPEC moves at a much slower pace than we'd like to see. This is just a first step to a more inclusive agreement. It is a step in the right direction.

Regardless of what OPEC does, the global oil market will be much tighter in Q3 as demand ALWAYS increases in Q3.
See chart at: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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