We Have Created a Significant Supply Gap in the Years to Come: Andurand
Pierre Andurand, one of the foremost prognosticators of the oil collapse, has declared the beginning of a bull run on oil prices that will likely span the next few years due to the impact on supply from current low oil prices.
In a January 2016 interview with Forbes, Andurand said: “The market did a lot to the downside but these prices are not sustainable. It looks like the oil market is expecting low prices for very long, but I don’t agree with that, I don’t think we are going to stay at this level for much longer. Most of the move down is behind us now.”
http://www.oilandgas360.com/oil-bulls-g ... dium=email
Crude futures, currently trading near $40 a barrel, will rebound to $60 to $70 this year and $80 in 2017, the chief investment officer of London-based hedge fund Andurand Capital Management LLP said in a recent newsletter to investors.
Oil Shortage in 12-18 Months
Oil Shortage in 12-18 Months
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Shortage in 12-18 Months
David Demshur, CEO of Core Lab often says, “The decline curve never sleeps, and always wins.”
Rystad Energy predicts that the depletion of existing oil fields will outpace new production in 2016, 2017, and 2018.
In his March 30th “Energy Market Assessment,” Energy Directions President Mike Smolinski said, “The first release of world crude-oil production data for the month of December shows an increase, but it also indicates depletion is catching up with production growth.”
Magnus Nysveen, Rystad’s head of analysis, adding that the market will re-balance this year. ‘Global demand and supply will balance very quickly because we’re seeing extended decline from producing fields’.”
Rystad Energy predicts that the depletion of existing oil fields will outpace new production in 2016, 2017, and 2018.
In his March 30th “Energy Market Assessment,” Energy Directions President Mike Smolinski said, “The first release of world crude-oil production data for the month of December shows an increase, but it also indicates depletion is catching up with production growth.”
Magnus Nysveen, Rystad’s head of analysis, adding that the market will re-balance this year. ‘Global demand and supply will balance very quickly because we’re seeing extended decline from producing fields’.”
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Shortage in 12-18 Months
"We are expecting Latin America exports to decline at least 100,000 barrels per day in the second quarter and possibly as much as 200,000 bpd compared with the same period of 2015," said Robert Campbell from Energy Aspects.
(Reuters) - From Peru to Brazil, a rash of unplanned outages at ports and pipelines and necessary maintenance work at oilfields is taking a bite out of global production, unexpectedly curbing a historic supply glut.
> Venezuela is suffering from equipment failures that have hurt its crude upgrading and delayed loading and discharge at its main oil port.
> In Brazil, Energy Aspects has forecast a production decline at some Brazilian fields, which would keep exports flat while more maintenance projects are done after state-run Petrobras PETR4.SA and private operators postponed some in 2015.
>In Colombia has suffered from endemic violence afflicting transportation infrastructure. A rebel attack shut in the 200,000-bpd Caño Limon-Covenas pipeline.
> In Peru, another shut in crude pipeline is preventing exports of some 12,000 bpd of heavy crude in the Andean country. The small line is scheduled to resume in two months.
> In Panama, weather conditions have been limiting traffic at the Panama Canal, where most small to medium tankers pass to load and unload crude in the Americas. This could create a bottleneck, restricting Latin America's crude flows in the coming months.
(Reuters) - From Peru to Brazil, a rash of unplanned outages at ports and pipelines and necessary maintenance work at oilfields is taking a bite out of global production, unexpectedly curbing a historic supply glut.
> Venezuela is suffering from equipment failures that have hurt its crude upgrading and delayed loading and discharge at its main oil port.
> In Brazil, Energy Aspects has forecast a production decline at some Brazilian fields, which would keep exports flat while more maintenance projects are done after state-run Petrobras PETR4.SA and private operators postponed some in 2015.
>In Colombia has suffered from endemic violence afflicting transportation infrastructure. A rebel attack shut in the 200,000-bpd Caño Limon-Covenas pipeline.
> In Peru, another shut in crude pipeline is preventing exports of some 12,000 bpd of heavy crude in the Andean country. The small line is scheduled to resume in two months.
> In Panama, weather conditions have been limiting traffic at the Panama Canal, where most small to medium tankers pass to load and unload crude in the Americas. This could create a bottleneck, restricting Latin America's crude flows in the coming months.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
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prince_jake_33
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Re: Oil Shortage in 12-18 Months
Looks like the Saudis will continue to increase capability
Shaybah’s production capacity will rise to 1 million barrels a day from 750,000 barrels, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The field, in the Empty Quarter desert near the border with the United Arab Emirates, produces extra light grade crude with API gravity of 42 degrees, they said.
Shaybah’s expansion will help Saudi Aramco, as the state producer is known, to keep the company’s output capacity at 12 million barrels a day, they said
Saudi Arabia is maintaining investments in oil production as the kingdom pursues a strategy to defend market share amid a global glut. Saudi Aramco will keep investing in its crude oil production capacity, Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said last month. The company also plans to complete the expansion of the Khurais oil field to 1.5 million barrels a day in 2018, he said.
Shaybah’s production capacity will rise to 1 million barrels a day from 750,000 barrels, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The field, in the Empty Quarter desert near the border with the United Arab Emirates, produces extra light grade crude with API gravity of 42 degrees, they said.
Shaybah’s expansion will help Saudi Aramco, as the state producer is known, to keep the company’s output capacity at 12 million barrels a day, they said
Saudi Arabia is maintaining investments in oil production as the kingdom pursues a strategy to defend market share amid a global glut. Saudi Aramco will keep investing in its crude oil production capacity, Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said last month. The company also plans to complete the expansion of the Khurais oil field to 1.5 million barrels a day in 2018, he said.
Re: Oil Shortage in 12-18 Months
See the Raymond James slides from Monday's EPG luncheon. They predict that oil demand will exceed supply with six months. Everyone is focused on Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the U.S. shale plays but production is now falling almost everywhere. Demand will spike this summer.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Shortage in 12-18 Months
American gasoline consumption rose to 9.25 million barrels a day in March, an all-time high for the month.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group