Brexit

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dan_s
Posts: 34648
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Brexit

Post by dan_s »

Like most "FEARS" the impact on the global economy of "Brexit" is totally exaggerated.

Per Mitch Zacks:
[i]"The decision to “Remain” or “Leave” will not impact my forecast for modestly positive returns from equity markets in 2016, and I do not think it will dramatically affect the growth trajectory for the U.S. and the world. In the near term (next 6 – 12 months), my view hinges on the fact that a “Leave” vote does not mean that Britain leaves overnight. A “Leave” vote actually just triggers a 2-year exit process, where the UK would almost surely retain market access while renegotiating the terms of trade, tariffs and labor movement. That is not to say the EU will be keen to make a new deal with Britain, or that they’ll be friendly about the terms, but at least there will be time."[/i]

Over the years I have seen dozens of "FEARS" like this which have zero impact on global oil demand, but they cause the stocks to dip. These dips (not based on fundamentals or anything wrong with the individual companies) are GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITIES.

If you take the time to read the IEA's Oil Market Report summary ( https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/ ) it is now crystal clear that the global oil market will soon be back in balance. That means Raymond James forecast of WTI going over $70/bbl by September 30 is now likely.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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