Weather Update

[dan_s]

Watch the January 24 Update at http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

The 11-16 day forecast is extremely bullish for natural gas demand.

Joe has been forecasting this change in the weather pattern for several weeks and now the national (NCEP) forecast models are picking it up.

Keep an eye on Chicago at https://www.wunderground.com/us/il/chic ... 90.1.99999

Chicago is the "Bull's Eye" for natural gas draws from storage.

Let's review the basics:

1. Are more or less homes and businesses heated with natural gas today than five years ago? Answer: Yes, a lot more.

2. Has U.S. natural gas production increase or decreased over the last year? Answer: Decreased. Per EIA U.S. dry gas production declined 2.6 Bcf per day from Q3 2015 to Q3 2016

3. Has demand for U.S. natural gas increased or decreased over the last year? Answer: Increased. Demand is expected to be 3.5 Bcf per day higher in 2017.

4. Will it take more or less gas to refill U.S. storage this year during the April - November refill season than it did a year ago: Answer: Yes, 700 to 800 Bcf more than last year

5. Does Canada have more or less gas to send the U.S. in 2017 than it did a year ago. Answer: My SWAG is "less".

My point is: IT IS NOT JUST THE WEATHER THAT IS GOING TO DRIVE UP GAS PRICES.