Macro Stuff

[dan_s]

On Monday, 1/30/2017, the IEA said it does not expect oil demand to peak any time soon due to rising consumption in developing economies, Director Fatih Birol said, as reported by Reuters. More than one third of growth comes from truck demand in developing Asia, Birol said. Birol also warned that oil markets could enter a period of high volatility unless companies develop new projects after two years of sharp drops in investments sparked by low oil prices.

On Tuesday, 1/31/2017, Reuters released a survey by OPEC showing crude oil supply from quota carrying OPEC members averaged 30.01 million b/d in January, versus 31.17 million b/d in December. Although the survey hints at roughly 80% compliance, the market still awaits the release of reliable third party data.

On 2/1/2017 the EIA reported that U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 6.5 million barrels last week. Total petroleum inventories posted another large increase of 5.3 million barrels. The EIA reported U.S. crude oil production was estimated to be down 46,000 b/d with almost all of the decline from the Lower 48. WTI crude oil prices traded in the $50 to $55/bbl range, with the market considering bullish production cut estimates from OPEC and non-OPEC countries versus bearish sentiment regarding U.S. shale production potential increases.

On 2/1/2017, Iran's defense minister said it had tested a new missile but this did not breach the Islamic Republic's nuclear accord with world powers or a U.N. Security Council resolution endorsing the pact, as reported by Reuters. Iran has test fired several ballistic missiles since the nuclear deal in 2015, but the latest test was the first during U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. Trump said in his election campaign that he would stop Iran's missile program. "The recent test was in line with our plans and we will not allow foreigners to interfere in our defense affairs," Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan told Tasnim news agency. "The test did not violate the nuclear deal or (U.N.) Resolution 2231." A U.S. official said on Monday that Iran test launched a medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday and it exploded after traveling 630 miles. The Security Council held an emergency meeting and recommended the matter of the missile testing be studied at committee level. The new U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, called the test "unacceptable".

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iran-vows-roa ... 55229.html

On Friday, 2/3/2017, Reuters reported the U.S. Senate will consider repealing a rule limiting venting of natural gas methane by oil and gas operators on federal and tribal lands, mostly in the U.S. West. The repeal was passed by the Republican controlled House on Friday.