TPH Oil Price Forecast

[dan_s]

David Purcell at TPH lays out the case for WTI ramping $75/Bbl by Q4 2014 here:

https://tudor.na.bdvision.ipreo.com/NSi ... 7478817503

[dan_s]

OPEC compliance to fall? It should be noted, however, that some analysts see this as the high watermark for compliance. Saudi Arabia will be under pressure to increase production as temperatures rise in order to offset demand, and the idea of front-loading steep cuts was intentional in order to inspire confidence in the deal from the market. In other words, things look good on the compliance front, but investors should remain skeptical. Meanwhile, Kuwait’s oil minister said that he and other OPEC officials are leaning on non-OPEC members to increase their compliance with the deal. The non-OPEC countries participating in the deal are posting a 50 percent compliance rate right now.

Iraq output to fall. Bloomberg reports that Iraq’s production could hit a seven-month low in March due to maintenance and seasonal fluctuations, which could help Iraq meet its obligations under the OPEC deal. March exports could drop to 3 mb/d from 3.64 mb/d in February. Iraq promised to cut 210,000 bpd as part of the agreement and some field maintenance could allow them to achieve that target.