Saudi Aramco up to 9.9 mb/d. Saudi Aramco said that it is producing more than 9.9 mb/d, largely restoring production to levels seen prior to the Abqaiq attack. The company is still working on restoring damaged spare capacity.
Aramco sweetens IPO with $75 billion dividend. Saudi Arabia said that Aramco would pay $75 billion in annual dividends, an effort made to attract more investors ahead of the company’s IPO. The government also said that it would overhaul royalty payments and cut corporate tax.
Fitch downgrades Aramco. Fitch cut Saudi Aramco’s credit rating due to geopolitical risks from A+ to A, with a stable outlook. “The downgrade reflects rising geopolitical and military tensions in the Gulf region, Fitch’s revised assessment of the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s economic infrastructure and continued deterioration in Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and external balance sheets,” Fitch said in a release.
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Saudi Arabia needs higher oil prices or a very successful IPO for Aramco. So...
> They make claims that Aramco has rapidly restored production after the drone strike to increase value of Aramco by telling the world they can survive attacks by Iran, but they put downward pressure on oil price with claims that they have even higher production "capacity".
> Iran just needs small attacks on Saudi Arabia to frighten investors away from the Aramco IPO, but more attacks should increase the oil price.
> Higher oil prices caused by attacks on SA, UAE or tankers puts more pressure on Europe and gets more European leaders begging Trump to drop the sanctions.
> Iran risks military attacks from the U.S. if they make significant attacks, but Trump definitely doesn't want war with Iran now.
> Iran's economy is tanking under the pressure of U.S. sanctions.
What should Iran do next?
The logical move is to drop the nuclear program and make peace with the world, but Iran is not logical. If you assume that the Supreme Leader really does want a nuke so that he can wipe out Israel, what do they do next?
Aramco IPO
Aramco IPO
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Aramco IPO
From AEGIS:
Saudi Arabia claims that it has fully restored crude supply following drone and cruise missile attacks that knocked 5.7 MMBbl/d of production offline two weeks ago, according to the country’s finance ministry
> Light crude processing capabilities are still not running at full rates at the Abqaiq crude processing plant (Argus)
> Saudi Aramco has asked some of its term customers contracted to receive light crude to temporarily accept heavier grades
Saudi Arabia claims that it has fully restored crude supply following drone and cruise missile attacks that knocked 5.7 MMBbl/d of production offline two weeks ago, according to the country’s finance ministry
> Light crude processing capabilities are still not running at full rates at the Abqaiq crude processing plant (Argus)
> Saudi Aramco has asked some of its term customers contracted to receive light crude to temporarily accept heavier grades
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group