Geopolitical Risk - Iran

[dan_s]

As tensions ratchet up in the region, a handful of major shippers operating in the Persian Gulf are curtailing operations there.

Several oil tankers operated by major players have diverted away from the Persian Gulf or delayed loading by several days. That's according to Reid I'Anson, global energy economist at Kpler, a data intelligence company.

I'Anson said a tanker chartered by Brazilian oil giant Petrobras was supposed to load up with oil in Basra on Jan. 5, but instead it left the Persian Gulf empty. He said another tanker operated by a major oil shipper has been idling in the Arabian Sea for about a week.

I'Anson says the disruptions are minor right now. But he said “that’s a lot of money to be out in the sea with no oil going nowhere.”

In 2018, some 21 million barrels per day passed through the Strait, a narrow waterway which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. One-fifth of the oil consumed by the world passes through the narrow waterway, which Iranian officials threatened to close in April in response to U.S. sanctions.

In other fallout from the U.S.-Iran dust-up, Turkey’s national airline has temporarily cancelled flights to Iran and Iraq.

The official Anadolu news agency said Wednesday that Turkish Airlines flights would be suspended as a precaution until 1800 GMT Thursday.

Turkish Airlines flights will not use Iraqi and Iranian airspaces during this time and planes would change their routes, the agency said.

Commercial airlines are rerouting flights throughout the Middle East to avoid potential danger during heightened tensions between the United States and Iran.

Also Wednesday, a Ukrainian passenger jet crashed shortly after taking off from Iran’s capital killing 167 passengers and nine crew members just hours after Iran’s ballistic missile attack. Iranian officials said they suspected a mechanical issue. And U.S. intelligence officials say there's no evidence the jetliner was shot down.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said 138 of the passengers were bound for Canada.. The flight also included a family of four and newlyweds, too. The manifest listed several teenagers and children, some as young as 1 or 2.

The crash ranked among the worst losses of life for Canadians in an aviation disaster. The flag over Parliament in Ottawa was lowered to half-staff, and Trudeau vowed to get to the bottom of the disaster.

"Know that all Canadians are grieving with you," he said, addressing the victims' families.

[dan_s]

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal, citing sources, reported that Saudi Arabia’s state tanker operator, Bahri, had suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

British warships have also reportedly been stationed near the Gulf in order to support British-flagged oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if required.

[dan_s]

At Tuesday's luncheon in Houston I stated that:
"Oil Prices are set by the Global Market"; the U.S. is not energy independent.
"All oil is not the same"; the U.S. does not have enough heavy oil to meet our needs. Most shale oil is Ultra-Light an cannot be used to produce diesel and other refined products.

Article on this topic: https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/business ... index.html

The slides that I spoke from on Tuesday will be up on the EPG website this afternoon.

[dan_s]

Iran's Guards warn of 'harsher revenge' after missile strikes on U.S. targets: agency
Reuters•January 9, 2020
DUBAI (Reuters) - A Revolutionary Guards commander said Iran would take "harsher revenge soon" after Tehran launched missile attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq in retaliation for last week's U.S. killing of an Iranian general, Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday.

The agency was quoting senior commander Abdollah Araghi, speaking after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Iran appeared to be "standing down" after the missile strikes that did not harm any U.S. troops in Iraq.

In a separate report, Tasnim quoted the deputy Guards head, Ali Fadavi, as saying Iranian missile attacks on U.S. targets were a display of Iran's military power and said U.S. forces "couldn't do a damn thing."
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MY TAKE: Trump may have said Iran is "standing down", but I think the chance of Iran doing nothing while Trump increases sanctions that are crushing the Iranian economy is zero.