Dan,
If I recall correctly, you said in your most recent podcast that US deaths (from all causes) in 2020 have been lower than expected.
That is not what the CDC reported today. Go to this CDC site and scroll down to the graph showing the expected numbers of deaths. Look at the portion for 2020. You'll see that "all cause" deaths reported thus far in 2020 are well above the expected number.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm
US death rates in 2020 NOT lower
Re: US death rates in 2020 NOT lower
Take out the deaths in blue states that were caused by sending infected people back into nursing homes. Plus, I wonder how many Americans died because the fear mongering made them afraid to go to a hospital.
I said total deaths in the World was running below the normal rate of ~0.8% of the population at the beginning of the year. I go here.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
At the beginning of 2020 there were ~7,755,000,000 people on planet Earth. Looks like we are on pace for ~59 million deaths this year. 59 / 7,755 = 0.76%
COVID19 death s/b be somewhere between 1.3 and 1.4 million or 0.018% of the number of humans that were alive on January 1st.
So, 99.982% of the world's population did not die from COVID-19.
See how easy it is to make numbers support your position. We live in a world of very big numbers and they bigger the numbers are the easier it is twist them to support at narrative.
IMO none of this crap means anything. We are all going to die. Quality of life is what matters. Which is just my opinions!
Also, just in my opinion, the actual number of deaths from COVID-19 is way over-stated unless we include the deaths caused by the poverty this crap has created.
I said total deaths in the World was running below the normal rate of ~0.8% of the population at the beginning of the year. I go here.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
At the beginning of 2020 there were ~7,755,000,000 people on planet Earth. Looks like we are on pace for ~59 million deaths this year. 59 / 7,755 = 0.76%
COVID19 death s/b be somewhere between 1.3 and 1.4 million or 0.018% of the number of humans that were alive on January 1st.
So, 99.982% of the world's population did not die from COVID-19.
See how easy it is to make numbers support your position. We live in a world of very big numbers and they bigger the numbers are the easier it is twist them to support at narrative.
IMO none of this crap means anything. We are all going to die. Quality of life is what matters. Which is just my opinions!
Also, just in my opinion, the actual number of deaths from COVID-19 is way over-stated unless we include the deaths caused by the poverty this crap has created.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: US death rates in 2020 NOT lower
Why, then, have you (more than once) raised the subject?IMO none of this crap means anything.
US death rates during the pandemic have the potential to shape public opinion, influence public policy decisions, and influence election outcomes (have you listened to what anti-Trumpers have been saying about the US' response to COVID?). From your other posts, you seem to think that elections are important and have consequences, so which is it? Meaningless, or meaningful?
Maybe it would be more productive to examine data objectively, without first having an agenda and without molding the data to fit that position. Perhaps just letting the data lead one to a position might yield a more intellectually honest and useful result.See how easy it is to make numbers support your position.
Re: US death rates in 2020 NOT lower
I raise the topic because the pandemic shutdowns are by far the MAJOR thing holding down demand for oil and I think the shutdowns have very little impact on controlling the virus.
Here is what matters: More than 99.97% of humans won't die from Covid-19. As long as the Earth's population is growing (by ~247,000 per day this year) demand for energy increases.
My point is that with such a low fatality rate for Covid-19, we can't keep having rolling shutdowns of global economies. This is a fallen world and we have to live with sickness. Why? Because the poverty the shutdowns create destroy millions of lives. I realize your opinion is different than my opinion. For a few seconds put yourself in the position of someone that lost a high paying job, can't find a new job making half as much and now doesn't know how you will make your next house payment.
Over 34 million Americans are now living below the poverty line. Life sucks at that level. I thank God each day that something like this didn't happen when Susan & I had two small children back in the 1980's. Like most young families today, we were living from paycheck to paycheck. When we got married our only assets were two old cars that were paid for.
Here is what matters: More than 99.97% of humans won't die from Covid-19. As long as the Earth's population is growing (by ~247,000 per day this year) demand for energy increases.
My point is that with such a low fatality rate for Covid-19, we can't keep having rolling shutdowns of global economies. This is a fallen world and we have to live with sickness. Why? Because the poverty the shutdowns create destroy millions of lives. I realize your opinion is different than my opinion. For a few seconds put yourself in the position of someone that lost a high paying job, can't find a new job making half as much and now doesn't know how you will make your next house payment.
Over 34 million Americans are now living below the poverty line. Life sucks at that level. I thank God each day that something like this didn't happen when Susan & I had two small children back in the 1980's. Like most young families today, we were living from paycheck to paycheck. When we got married our only assets were two old cars that were paid for.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: US death rates in 2020 NOT lower
You're supposition about what I believe is largely mistaken. I have pointed out your several factually erroneous claims and opinions during the pandemic not because I agree or disagree with your conclusions, but simply to encourage you to be more objective and careful about expressing your views in a manner that does not mislead.Why? Because the poverty the shutdowns create destroy millions of lives. I realize your opinion is different than my opinion.
For example, recently you assured us that COVID would be gone after election day. Yes, COVID has been politicized (to everyone's detriment). But to claim, as you did, that it will be gone after election day was just preposterous. Unfortunately (and I wish it weren't so), it appears that it is going to get worse after election day, not disappear.
Don't assume you think you know what I believe. I agree, in fact, that many millions of Americans are undergoing severe stress, and that most lockdowns have been excessive and harmful.
Re: US death rates in 2020 NOT lower
I just personally believe that the economic shutdowns have very little impact on the spread of COVID-19, the risk of death is MUCH LOWER than we have been told and the deaths from the poverty created this year will be far worse than the deaths from the virus. Especially for younger people.
To be clear, I think the FEAR of the virus will go down after the election. I do think we are getting close to a vaccine/cure for COVID-19. I get dozens of reports on public drug companies and the analysts seem optimistic that a viable vaccine is close.
To be clear, I think the FEAR of the virus will go down after the election. I do think we are getting close to a vaccine/cure for COVID-19. I get dozens of reports on public drug companies and the analysts seem optimistic that a viable vaccine is close.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group