Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending February 2, 2024
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.8 million barrels per day during the week ending February 2, 2024, which was 9 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 82.4% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.4 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.3 million barrels per day from the previous week. < 1.3 million bpd X 7 days = 9.1 million barrels fewer imports. This is why crude oil inventories declined.
Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 5.9% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 536 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 126 thousand barrels per day.
Inventories:
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 427.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels from last week and are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels from last week and are 2% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels last week. < U.S. and OECD Petroleum Inventories are way below 30 Days of Consumption, which should put upward pressure on oil prices.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels a day, down by 0.8% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.3 million barrels a day, slightly below the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.3% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 0.4% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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It will be interesting to see what another period of winter weather starting next week will do to distillate inventories. In my opinion this report is mildly bullish because it shows that demand for transportation fuels has picked up. The big surge in demand in the U.S. and globally comes in Q2.
EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Feb 7
EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Feb 7
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Feb 7
Interesting chart from the EIA data,
https://twitter.com/jorge_moj/status/1755268245559316917
https://twitter.com/jorge_moj/status/1755268245559316917
Re: EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Feb 7
That chart includes the SPR, which Biden drained for political purposes.
This is EIA's oil production forecast for 2024:
"U.S. crude oil production. We estimate that U.S. crude oil production reached an all-time high in December of more than 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d). However, crude oil production fell to 12.6 million b/d in January because of shut-ins related to cold weather. We forecast production will return to almost 13.3 million b/d in February but then decrease slightly through the middle of 2024 and will not exceed the December 2023 record until February 2025."
Lots of investors assume that U.S. shale oil production has no near-term upper limit. With only the Permian Basin oil production increasing, I think we may be closer to Peak U.S. Oil Production than the current paradigm.
BTW the EIA also widened the definition of crude oil last year to include some NGLs that are being blended into gasoline.
In my opinion, the only way that U.S. oil production increases again starting in February is much higher oil prices and Trump in the White House opening up all Federal lands. That last sentence tells me that inside the EIA they think Trump is the next president. Even if Trump is elected, it will take time and higher oil prices to expand upstream drilling budgets.
This is EIA's oil production forecast for 2024:
"U.S. crude oil production. We estimate that U.S. crude oil production reached an all-time high in December of more than 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d). However, crude oil production fell to 12.6 million b/d in January because of shut-ins related to cold weather. We forecast production will return to almost 13.3 million b/d in February but then decrease slightly through the middle of 2024 and will not exceed the December 2023 record until February 2025."
Lots of investors assume that U.S. shale oil production has no near-term upper limit. With only the Permian Basin oil production increasing, I think we may be closer to Peak U.S. Oil Production than the current paradigm.
BTW the EIA also widened the definition of crude oil last year to include some NGLs that are being blended into gasoline.
In my opinion, the only way that U.S. oil production increases again starting in February is much higher oil prices and Trump in the White House opening up all Federal lands. That last sentence tells me that inside the EIA they think Trump is the next president. Even if Trump is elected, it will take time and higher oil prices to expand upstream drilling budgets.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Feb 7
From OilPrice.com
"Reuters market analyst John Kemp, meanwhile, reported that diesel prices were set for a spike this year because of below-average inventories. The spike, however, would only happen if the U.S. and European economies reverse the economic slowdown that marked last year.
Kemp had earlier written that manufacturing activity in the United States was on the rebound, suggesting a further tightening of the below-average stocks of diesel fuel, which would have a fast effect on prices.
Oil prices, in the meantime, were on the rise earlier today, following the API’s release of its inventory estimates. Contributing to the rise was a report from the EIA that forecast a sharp slowdown in oil production growth in the country this year."
"Reuters market analyst John Kemp, meanwhile, reported that diesel prices were set for a spike this year because of below-average inventories. The spike, however, would only happen if the U.S. and European economies reverse the economic slowdown that marked last year.
Kemp had earlier written that manufacturing activity in the United States was on the rebound, suggesting a further tightening of the below-average stocks of diesel fuel, which would have a fast effect on prices.
Oil prices, in the meantime, were on the rise earlier today, following the API’s release of its inventory estimates. Contributing to the rise was a report from the EIA that forecast a sharp slowdown in oil production growth in the country this year."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group